Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are marching higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock closed on Friday trading for $6.17. In late morning trade on Monday, shares are swapping hands for $6.22 apiece, up 0.8%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.1% at this same time.
Despite today's welcome boost, Santos shares remain down 18.6% since closing at $7.65 on 17 September.
As you likely know, a lot of the past month's selling pressure came following the sudden collapse of the roughly $30 billion takeover offer lobbed by the XRG Consortium in June.
Taking a step back, shares in the ASX 200 oil and gas producer are down 11.2% over 12 months. Though that doesn't include the two dividends that Santos paid out over the year. At the current share price, Santos stock trades on a 5.9% trailing dividend yield.
Looking to the year ahead, however, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expects shareholders will enjoy a much stronger performance.
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Santos shares poised for growth
Santos released its September quarter results last Thursday.
Among the highlights, the company generated US$300 million in free cash flow over the three months.
And Santos shares closed up 0.8% on the day after reporting production of 21.3 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) and quarterly sales revenue of US$1.1 billion.
The company also reported material progress with its two major growth projects, Barossa LNG and Pikka Phase 1. The two projects are forecast to boost the ASX 200 energy stock's total production by some 30% in 2027 relative to 2024 levels.
Commenting on the quarterly update, Macquarie noted that Santos shares were nearing the promised growth delivery. According to the broker:
(1) Barossa – Software/safety related issues at the FPSO triggered a 4Q guidance downgrade, however the good news is STO is already producing gas into the pipeline to shore (which will be pressuring up), ahead of restarting the Darwin LNG train (soon). First LNG cargo still expected in the 4Q (ie. within weeks). (2) Pikka -first oil in 1Q-2026 was reiterated.
Then there's the gas review.
Macquarie noted:
STO comments that GLNG's strong upstream production (711TJ/d up from 705TJ/d last quarter) & development performance (33 Fairview wells drilled & compressor upgrades completed) is reducing the project's reliance on third party gas.
In maintaining its outperform rating on Santos, Macquarie said, "STO remains our preferred exposure in large cap energy, heavily discounted and catalyst rich."
Those catalysts were said to include, "Barossa first LNG cargo (4Q25), Pikka first oil (1Q26), PNG LNG debt final payment (mid-2026), Gas market review outcomes (key emerging risk)."
Macquarie has a 12-month price target of $8.15 for Santos shares. That's 31.0% above current levels. And it doesn't include those two upcoming dividends.
