ASX gold shares have largely gone on a huge run thanks to the rising gold price. The sector is benefiting from investors rushing to find a safe haven.
It's quite incredible how there are two big booms happening at the same time, with shares related to AI and gold both seeing incredible performance.
Broker UBS recently gave some updated thoughts on where it thinks the gold price is headed over the longer-term and what the opportunities are in the gold sector.
Gold commentary
UBS said in a note that with the price of gold up around 20% in the past three months to more than US$4,000 per ounce and well ahead of its forecasts for US$3,700 per ounce for the fourth quarter of 2025, it has increased its long-term gold price forecast by US$450 per ounce to US$3,250 per ounce, which is used for setting its price targets.
The broker said that this "better reflects higher production costs, continued strong demand for the safety of the yellow metal and is closer to how the market values gold mining equities."
As a result of this change, its price targets have been increased by between 20% to 35%.
It thinks conditions for gold to drop are "unlikely" and the price changes remain supported by de-dollarisation and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
UBS said it's wary on production costs, but thinks the outlook for share price growth looks promising thanks to the strong gold price:
FY26 guidance reset production and cost expectations and keeps some investors wary. We see limited risk to the physicals…and quarterly reports released so far have delivered cash flow to underpin high share prices.
…with gold now >US$4,100/oz, we would expect any potential price upgrades across the street to outweigh any further cost inflation.
ASX gold share opportunities
UBS has a buy rating on a few different ASX gold shares including Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU), Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD), Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) and Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU).
The UBS price target for Northern Star Resources shares is $28.20, implying a possible rise of 8% over the next year.
The price target for Perseus Mining shares is $6.15, suggesting a possible rise of 19%.
The price target on Genesis Minerals shares is $8, implying a possible rise of 17.5%.
The price target for Regis Resources shares is $7.25, suggesting a possible rise of 12%.
The price target on Vault Minerals shares is 90 cents, implying a possible rise of 15%.
Overall, the growth potential for these businesses seems solid, despite the huge gains we've already seen.
