I'd describe Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares as one of the most impressive options in the financial sector. For starters, the business offers investors a solid dividend yield combined with a pleasing outlook for growth.
I like Macquarie more than other banks. The big four banks of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) are focused on providing loans in the domestic economy.
Macquarie generates a substantial portion of its income from overseas, making it much more geographically diversified than the big ASX bank shares. Plus, Macquarie's operations are much more diversified.
The investment bank does have an Australian-focused banking and financial services (BFS) division, which is rapidly growing market share. It also has an investment bank, an asset management segment and a commodities and global markets (CGM) division.
The strength of its businesses allow it to invest wherever it thinks it can make the most money for shareholders. By making more profit, the Macquarie dividend yield can grow for shareholders. Let's take a look at how large it's predicted to become.
FY26
Macquarie is already in its 2026 financial year, so investors won't have to wait a long time to receive the passive income for FY26.
Something to note with the Macquarie dividend yield is that due to its international profit generation, its dividends aren't fully franked, so the yields I'll be highlighting won't include franking credits, but the Macquarie grossed-up dividend yield including the franking credits will be a little higher.
The latest UBS analysis about Macquarie shares came after the Shield update. Macquarie has agreed and committed to pay the affected people who were invested in the failed Shield Master Fund, which was on the Macquarie wrap platform, the full $321 million by the end of September.
Media reported that the liquidation value of the fund is around 70 cents on the dollar and Macquarie will make a goodwill payment of $100 million to cover the outstanding balance and ensure investors get their money back. Macquarie said it's already fully provisioned for this, implying no impact on FY26 guidance.
Based on that information, broker UBS forecasts that Macquarie could pay a dividend yield of 3.2% in FY26.
FY27
The 2027 financial year could see an improvement in financial performance or Macquarie which could the ASX financial share lift its payout further for shareholders.
UBS predicts the global investment bank could deliver investors a dividend yield of 3.3% in FY27.
FY28
The 2028 financial year could even improve again for investors, with predictions of higher profit and dividends.
In FY28, Macquarie's dividend yield is predicted by UBS to increase again to 3.5%.
FY29
The 2029 financial year is projected to see yet another rise of profit and the dividend, with the dividend yield forecast to increase to 3.6% in FY29.
FY30
The Macquarie dividend yield is expected to continue its climb in the 2030 financial year, which is pleasing for investors focused on finding growing businesses with rising payouts.
In FY30, UBS projects the company could deliver a dividend yield of 3.8%. UBS currently has a neutral rating on the investment bank, with a price target of $225 on the Macquarie share price.
