The Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) share price has jumped 1.56% higher again at the time of writing on Wednesday morning. Changing hands at $9.77 per share, it is now up 23.98% over the month but 19.26% lower over the year.
The uranium producer's share price jumped 8.98% in the past 24 hours alone following its quarterly update for Q1 FY26. The company announced record quarterly production of 1,066,496 pounds of uranium (U3O8) since the restart of the Langer Heinrich Mine. That's a 7.3% hike quarter on quarter.
The company also announced it completed A$300 million of equity raising in September, with additional share purchase plans to follow.
Paladin Energy shares were also supported by the miner's 21.2% boost in the average realised uranium price to US$67.4 per pound.
Following the announcement, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) wrote a note to investors with an update on its outlook and price guidance on the shares.
Here's what the broker had to say.
Full steam ahead
Macquarie has confirmed its outperform rating on Paladin Energy shares and raised its target price to $11.25, up from $8.40.
At the time of writing, this represents a potential upside of 15.1% for investors over the next 12 months.
"Outperform. Nuclear's expanding role in global energy & the AI race will require significant investment in new uranium mines. With a largely exhausted restart queue & production challenges at major producers, contract floors should lift to incentive levels for the two new Namibia projects," the broker said in the investor note.
"Reinstate with a 12-month SOTP-based TP of $11.25/sh, which factors in a US$95/lb long term U3O8 price assumption (real 2026/27)."
What else did the broker say about Paladin Energy and its shares?
Macquarie was pleased with Paladin Energy's Q1 FY26 production update. It described it as "solid" and "with rates to improve in 2H FY26".
It also noted that the company now sits on a healthy cash and liquids balance of US$269 million following its A$300 million issuance.
Macquarie has raised its long-term uranium price forecast to US$95/lb after it determined that marginal greenfield projects may require US$85/lb floor pricing, which is higher than the current US$70-75/lb level indicated by industry.
"We raise our long-term price forecast to US$95/lb, a level that allows for an adequate rate of return for investors in these marginal projects when all cost buckets are considered (holding costs, equity dilution from multiple equity raises past & future, all-in sustaining costs during the project life & the need for significant working capital on hand ahead of ramp-up, etc…)," Macquarie said.
"At current levels post-raise, we see PDN shares now implying US$72.5/lb uranium price in our base case (which includes minor value for Australia assets), or rises to US$77.5/lb if Australia assets excluded. This is based on full inclusion for PLS (no risking), and a 2031 start-up."
