The Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) share price has jumped 7.13% in lunchtime trading on Tuesday, to $21.70 a piece at the time of writing.
The share price has seen some impressive gains recently, up 51.82% this month and 180.06% for the year.
The current trading price also represents the highest trading price seen since June 2011.
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Why has the Lynas Rare Earths share price suddenly spiked?
There have been escalating trade tensions between the US and China this week. China announced plans to restrict exports of rare earths, and the US responded by threatening to put 100% tariffs on China. The outcome is that rare earth prices are storming higher.
Lynas also pleased investors when it signed an agreement last week with a US magnet manufacturer, Noveon Magnetics. The move is an attempt to diversify some of its business away from China.
Elsewhere, investors are also confident about the company's pipeline of growth projects. The rare earths miner plans to continue exploration and mine plan optimisation at its Mt Weld mine in Western Australia, develop value-added specialty rare earths manufacturing capabilities, and it plans to partner with companies with proven expertise in rare earth metal and magnet production.
Lynas also has the world's largest single rare earths separation plant in Malaysia, with an expanded nameplate capacity of 10,500 tonnes per annum.
It's been a big week for the miner, and in a recent note to investors, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) analysts reveal what they expect for the company going forward.
What's next for the stock?
In a recent note to investors, the broker confirmed its neutral rating on Lynas shares. It also raised its target price on the stock to $18.50, up from $16.50 previously.
At the time of writing, that represents a potential 14.7% downside for the shares over the next 12 months.
"LYC… [has] outpaced NdPr gains; with limited upside from further controls, we both names are fully priced at these levels," the broker said in its note.
"We see marginal effects of further controls decreasing; future ex-China partnership could also be partially priced in already."
Macquarie has also lifted its long-term NdPr (Neodymium and Praseodymium, two rare earth elements) prices from US$95/kg to US$110/kg. It forecasts the prices to peak at US$120/kg by late 2026 to early 2027, driven by a strong forecast market deficit in the near term.
NdPr prices were flat in 1H25 but surged in July due to discussions around Chinese tariffs, tighter production quotas in China, and heightened market volatility across the rare earths value chain.
"We have forecast a small deficit in NdPr market balance in CY25 with 108kt of supply and 110kt of demand. The market could remain in deficit with a NdPr supply gap of 6kt and ~0.5kt for CY26E and CY27E, respectively," Macquarie said.
"The market could return to a tight balance with greenfield supply growth and increased recycling for CY28-CY30E."
Macquarie also said that expansion from Lynas, MP, and greenfield projects may ease tightness by late 2026. Meanwhile, China remains dominant in supply and demand, and any accelerated supply response poses downside risk.
