ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares have been in focus this week.
That's because the banking giant released its highly anticipated strategy update on Monday.
Does this new strategy make it a buy? Let's see what analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) thinks about the big four bank.
Image source: Getty Images
What is the broker saying?
Macquarie was impressed with the ANZ 2030 update and particularly the level of detail that was provided. It commented:
Unlike standard practice, which typically includes plenty of caveats, ANZ went "all in" indicating that the full impact of cost saves will come through the P&L. Additionally, ANZ increased its targeted cost synergies from SUN to $500m (~55% of its cost base). While under our current revenue expectations, it is improbable that ANZ will achieve its mid-40s CTI and 12-13% RoNTA targets (a sector issue), even a partial delivery of cost targets may provide sound upside.
The broker highlights that the bank is trying to achieve significant cost reductions, resetting its cost base by 2028. After which, it will focus on growing its revenue. It adds:
ANZ expects to deliver $800m of cost out in FY26 and nearly double Suncorp's synergies to $500m as part of its first phase of strategic reset. We believe ANZ is targeting absolute cost reductions with a cost base in FY28 of $11-11.5bn vs ~$12bn underlying cost in FY25. The second phase (from FY28 onwards) will focus on outperforming on revenue growth, focusing on retail and commercial.
The big question though is whether these bold plans can be achieved. Macquarie thinks it could be very challenging and there is a danger of revenue underperformance and market share losses. It adds:
ANZ is looking to achieve what no other bank has done: materially outperform peers on costs and then revenue. While ANZ may have more "fat" to start with (see Failing to plan is planning to fail), we believe aggressive cost-out programs have many challenges. As peers invest in their capabilities and look to grow share, the key risk for ANZ is revenue underperformance and market share losses.
Should you buy, hold, or sell ANZ shares?
At present, Macquarie is sitting on the fence when it comes to ANZ shares.
In response to the strategy update, the broker has retained its neutral rating with an improved price target of $34.00 (from $33.00). Based on its current share price of $35.84, this implies potential downside of 5% from current levels.
Commenting on its recommendation, the broker said:
Notwithstanding execution risks, we believe investors will give ANZ the benefit of the doubt for now. Trading at ~15x P/E and 1.3x P/NTA, which balances execution risks and the potential upside of improving returns vs peers at 19-27x P/E and 1.8-3.5x P/B, we see relative value in ANZ. Neutral.
