Why this ASX 200 stock could deliver a 30% return

Big returns could be on offer for buyers of this stock according to Bell Potter.

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Key points

  • Analysts at Bell Potter are bullish on Elders, citing potential market-beating returns with an expected 26% upside over the next year.
  • Approval for Elders' acquisition of Delta Agribusiness is seen as a positive, with future earnings anticipated to grow significantly despite a recent softer trading update.
  • The broker maintains a buy rating with potential returns exceeding 30% when including the forecasted dividend yield.

Now could be a good time to pounce on the ASX 200 stock in this article.

That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, which believe that market-beating returns could be on the cards for investors over the next 12 months.

Which ASX 200 stock?

The stock that Bell Potter is bullish on is agribusiness company Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD).

According to the note, the broker was pleased to see that Elders has been given the green light from the ACCC to acquire Delta Agribusiness. It said:

The ACCC will not oppose the acquisition of Delta after accepting undertakings that ELD would divest 6 Delta branches in WA to Independent Rural and E. E. Muir. The combined FY25 contribution of the planned divestitures was $0.3m EBIT and as such would be considered largely immaterial. At a high level we would see completion of the Delta transaction as being ~10% EPS accretive on a PF25 post synergy basis (and mid-single digit on a PF26-27e basis).

However, it was a touch disappointed with its trading update, which revealed expectations for earnings in FY 2025 that would be short of its estimates. But with forward indicators looking positive, it is willing to look beyond this. The broker adds:

ELD has delivered a softer than expected trading update, with FY25e EBIT forecast at $142-146m (vs. BPe of $158.5m). The softer result reflects a materially softer outcome in crop protection margins in 2H25e, which has more than mitigated the stronger trends visible in Agency. While disappointing we note that most forward indicators of activity are starting FY26e with double digit YOY gains in areas such as livestock, wool, fertiliser and crop protection pricing.

Big potential returns

The note reveals that Bell Potter has retained its buy rating and $9.45 price target on the ASX 200 stock.

Based on its current share price of $7.51, this implies potential upside of 26% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, the broker is forecasting a dividend yield of just under 5% over the same period. This boosts the total potential return beyond 30%.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

Our Buy rating is unchanged. The closing of the Delta transaction is clearly a positive development, given the elongated acquisition timeline and in isolation is expected to be ~10% EPS accretive on a PF25e basis. In addition, we see encouraging indicators heading into FY26e, with crop input prices (fertiliser and glyphosate tech), livestock prices (cattle, lamb and mutton) and wool prices all demonstrating double digit YOY gains.

A more normal selling pattern in FY26e, delivery on SYSMOD and backward integration initiatives, sector activity tailwinds and consolidation of Delta are expected to drive high double-digit EPS growth in FY26-27e. This view does not look reflected in the current share price, with ELD trading at ~11x FY26e EPS.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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