If you are searching for big potential returns, then it could be worth considering Syrah Resources Ltd (ASX: SYR) shares.
That's because analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believe this ASX mining stock could almost double in value over the next 12 months.
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What is the broker saying?
Firstly, for those who are not familiar with Syrah Resources, let's take a quick look at what it is.
Syrah Resources is an industrial minerals and technology company operating the flagship Balama Graphite Operation in Mozambique and a downstream Active Anode Material Facility in the United States.
Macquarie notes that China is issuing new export controls on lithium battery components and graphite anode materials from next month. It said:
The Chinese government issued a new announcement and introduced new export controls on lithium battery components and graphite anode materials (effective from 8Nov 2025). Specifically for graphite, the controls target artificial graphite anode materials, mixed graphite anodes (natural and synthetic), and the associated production equipment and technologies. According to the announcement, exporters must now apply for licences. This move reflects China's broader strategy to tighten control over critical mineral exports, particularly graphite, for which it dominates global supply chains. Artificial graphite is essential for lithium-ion battery anodes.
As you might expect, this should be very good news for Syrah Resources. In fact, Macquarie believes it could be the catalyst for a major re-rating. It explains:
A re-rating event for SYR: We believe this restriction is a material positive event for SYR as it is uniquely positioned, boasting one of the world's largest natural graphite operations with production capacity of ~350ktpa and an 11.25ktpa AAM Vidalia facility that is ramping up. We see this as a re-rating event that is comparable to LYC and MP Materials. We note LYC has been trading above 12x Ev/Ebitda since Dec 2023, while MP's EV/Ebitda has remained >40x in recent months.
Huge upside for this ASX mining stock
According to the note, in response to China's export controls, the broker has upgraded Syrah Resources' shares to an outperform rating (from neutral) and lift its price target on them materially to 70 cents (from 30 cents).
Based on its current share price of 36 cents, this implies potential upside of 94% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on the upgrade, the broker said:
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. The restriction of critical minerals exports, including graphite, could accrue SYR a valuation premium given its vertically integrated Balama and Vidalia operations. SYR remains well positioned to benefit from EV growth and tailwinds from ex-China demand growth.
