Could a small investor today match the historic returns of Warren Buffett?

Is this an impossible task? Let's find out.

| More on:
A head shot of legendary investor Warren Buffett speaking into a microphone at an event.

Image source: The Motley Fool

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • While matching Warren Buffett’s exact 20% annual returns is unlikely today, disciplined investing in quality businesses like Buffett can still yield significant wealth.
  • Small investors can benefit from patience and compounding, with potential to grow $1,000 monthly investments at 10% per annum to $2.1 million in 30 years.
  • Success hinges on consistency and a long-term perspective, focusing on sustainable competitive advantages and resisting short-term market trends.

Warren Buffett's track record is the stuff of legend. Over six decades at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), the Oracle of Omaha has delivered average annual returns of around 20%.

This is roughly double the long-term performance of the S&P 500 index.

As you might imagine, that kind of compounding has turned modest sums into unimaginable wealth.

But it begs the question: could a small, everyday investor today ever come close to matching Buffett's historic returns? Let's find out.

The Buffett advantage

Buffett's success didn't come from secret formulas or luck. It came from time, patience, and discipline. He bought high-quality businesses at fair prices, avoided speculation, reinvested profits, and let compounding work for decades.

Importantly, Warren Buffett started his investment journey in an era when markets were far less efficient and information was harder to access.

He was able to find mispriced stocks through deep fundamental research long before competitors caught on. Today, technology and data availability means those kinds of easy bargains are rarer to find.

However, while the playing field has changed, the principles haven't.

What small investors can do

Where a small investor can still win is through time and consistency. You may not have Buffett's billions or his deal-making power, but you can follow his blueprint.

The Oracle of Omaha invests in quality businesses with sustainable competitive advantages and fair valuations. On the local market, that might mean ASX shares like CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL), Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), or WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC).

Importantly, unless an investment thesis for a particular stock is broken, Buffett isn't a seller. In fact, he famously stated once that "our favourite holding period is forever."

If you follow this lead, you could supercharge your wealth by taking full advantage of the power of compounding. Especially if you reinvest any dividends you receive along the way.

What compounding can still achieve

Speaking of compounding, let's see what sort of wealth a small investor could generate if they achieved only half of Buffett's average return and invested $1,000 a month.

$1,000 a month compounding at 10% per annum would turn into approximately $2.1 million in 30 years. Stretch that to 40 years, and the figure grows to almost $5.6million.

It is also worth noting that Buffett's edge was consistency. He didn't earn 20% every single year, but he didn't let this hold him back and stayed the course for more than 60 years, creating life-changing wealth.

So, can it be done?

Matching Buffett's exact record is probably out of reach. The scale, opportunity, and timing of his journey were unique. But for smaller investors, that shouldn't be discouraging. In fact, Buffett's success proves that disciplined investing is what builds lasting wealth.

By focusing on quality, patience, and compounding, and resisting the urge to chase short-term trends, an everyday investor can still achieve returns strong enough to create financial independence.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL, Goodman Group, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Berkshire Hathaway, CSL, Goodman Group, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Berkshire Hathaway, CSL, and Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on How to invest

A couple are happy sitting on their yacht.
How to invest

How to build a million-dollar ASX share portfolio from zero

It isn't as hard as you might think to build a seven-figure portfolio.

Read more »

A male investor wearing a white shirt and blue suit jacket sits at his desk looking at his laptop with his hands to his chin, waiting in anticipation.
How to invest

ASX sell-off accelerates: Is it time to sell shares?

It might be tempting to hit the sell button on days like today...

Read more »

a close up of a man with wide open eyes and wide open mouth holding his head and reacting in shock and surprise to some share market ews.
How to invest

How to prepare for a share market crash… before it's too late

The ASX 200 Index is now down more than 3% from its October peak.

Read more »

Person holding Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
How to invest

How to turn $50,000 into $500,000 on the ASX

Here's how to change a large sum of money into a life-changing sum.

Read more »

us stocks and asx share price represented by australian and us currency notes
How to invest

Should ASX investors avoid US stocks in the age of Trump?

Trump may be a divisive figure, but I'm still buying the world's best stocks.

Read more »

Four investors stand in a line holding cash fanned in their hands with thoughtful looks on their faces.
How to invest

How to make your first $10,000 in the ASX share market

Here's a guide for growing your wealth in the share market.

Read more »

A woman sits on her motorbike looking out at the ocean with both fists in the air.
How to invest

Investing $500 a month in ASX shares can beat inflation and build real wealth

Inflation erodes cash, but smart investing in ASX shares can help you build lasting wealth that rises above it.

Read more »

View of a business man's hand passing a $100 note to another with a bank in the background.
How to invest

The easy way to generate $10,000 of passive income from ASX shares

Want an extra income? Here's how it could be done.

Read more »