Auckland International Airport Ltd (ASX: AIA) shares have jumped 1.44% higher at the time of writing today and are changing hands at $7.05 a piece. It's good news for the dual-listed NZX and ASX 200 operator of New Zealand's largest airport, which has seen several peaks and troughs over the calendar year to date.
AIA's share price peaked in late January at $7.98 per share and has since shed 8.93%. After several months of fluctuations, the latest spike has seen AIA's shares rise 4.24% over the past month.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is 9.12% higher for the calendar year, and 1.12% higher over the past month.
On the NZX, AIA shares are 1.26% higher at the time of writing and are changing hands for NZ$8.01 each.
Now, in a note to investors, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has updated its guidance on AIA shares.
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Upside ahead for AIA shares
Macquarie has maintained its outperform rating on AIA shares and has confirmed its 12-month target price of NZ$8.75, up from NZ$8.55 in July.
That represents a potential upside of 6.8% for investors over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
"Outperform. Passenger volumes continue to recover towards pre-COVID levels, with PSE5 pricing and non-aeronautical revenue opportunities providing appealing leverage to the pax volume recovery," the broker said in its note to investors.
What else does Macquarie have to say about the ASX 200 stock?
In the note, Macquarie analysts explain that Air New Zealand has been on a campaign to orchestrate a change in the NZ airport regulatory framework.
This has ranged from "aggressive lobbying of Government Ministers and departments", to direct communication to ComCom, and even legal action (although not a Judicial Review). But this week, ComCom rejected the call for an airport regulation inquiry.
"As part of the review, ComCom has considered the merits of initiating a Section 56G inquiry under the Commerce Act 1986 and concluded that it will not do so at this time," Macquarie said.
"This is because of the high-cost nature of this process, and the lack of flexibility of any resulting regulatory changes, which it thought would likely result in over-regulation across the regulated airport sector."
And the decision is a win for New Zealand airports such as AIA because it gives better regulatory certainty.
"We believe that AIA has undergone a prolonged period of regulatory uncertainty. However, while we expect some changes in the ID regime around major capex review, we believe that after the MBIE and ComCom reviews, investors can have heightened confidence in the regulatory framework for PSE5 and beyond," the broker added.
