Gold price will go further: Goldman Sachs reveals 2026 prediction

The gold price continues to rise and is trading at US$3,970 per ounce, up 2% on Tuesday.

a woman wearing a sparkly strapless dress leans on a neat stack of six gold bars as she smiles and looks to the side as though she is very happy and protective of her stash. She also has gold fingernails and gold glitter pieces affixed to her cheeks.

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Key points

  • The gold price has surged 9% this past month and over 50% in a year, reaching US$3,970 per ounce, driving significant gains in ASX 200 gold shares like Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining.
  • Goldman Sachs predicts the gold price will go further, driven by strong structural demand from central banks amid easing US interest rates, and supports from opportunistic buyers in emerging markets.
  • Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have increased gold purchases by 5x since 2022 due to geopolitical tensions such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a trend Goldman expects to continue for at least three more years.

The gold price has leapt 9% over the past month, and is up by more than 50% over 12 months.

At the time of writing, the gold price is trading at US$3,970 per ounce, up 2% on Tuesday.

The rising value of the precious yellow metal continues to push ASX 200 gold shares higher.

The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index (ASX: XGD) is up 21% over the past month and 97% over 12 months.

By comparison, the S&P/ASX All Ords Index (ASX: XAO) is up 1.4% over the past month and 9% over the year.

The biggest gold mining share, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), is $24.71, down 0.2% today but up 23% over the past month.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price is also down 0.2% today to $11.24. But it's up 26% over the past month.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares are up 0.2% on Tuesday to $133.54 and up 16% over the past month.

Can this incredible gold price run go further?

You betcha, says top global broker, Goldman Sachs.

Goldman's 2026 gold price prediction revealed

In a new note, Goldman Sachs said it expects the gold price to rise to US$4,000 per ounce by the middle of next year.

However, they acknowledge that it's likely to overshoot these expectations.

Fresh demand from key groups of buyers is pushing the gold price higher, according to the broker's research team.

Goldman said there was strong structural demand from central banks amid easing interest rates in the US.

The broker said falling interest rates support exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand for gold.

Goldman explained that gold buyers fall into two groups.

The first is conviction buyers, such as central banks, exchange-traded funds, and speculators.

These buyers tend to purchase gold consistently, regardless of the price, and are driven by their economic views or a desire to hedge risk.

This sets the direction of the gold price.

The second group is opportunistic buyers, such as households in emerging markets, who buy when they believe the gold price is right.

These buyers tend to create a floor under the gold price on the way down, and resistance on the way up.

Goldman Sachs Research analyst, Lina Thomas, said central banks — particularly in emerging markets — have increased their gold purchases by about 5x since 2022.

The catalyst for this much stronger buying activity was Russia's foreign-currency reserves being frozen following its invasion of Ukraine.

Thomas wrote in an article:

We view this as a structural shift in reserve management behavior, and we do not expect a near-term reversal.

Thomas said Goldman Sachs expects central banks, especially in emerging markets, to continue buying gold for three more years.

Our rationale is that emerging market central banks remain significantly underweight gold compared to their developed market counterparts and are gradually increasing allocations as part of a broader diversification strategy.

The broker estimates that China holds less than 10% of its reserves in gold.

This compares to about 70% for the US, Germany, France, and Italy.

A recent World Gold Council survey found 95% of central banks expect global gold holdings to rise over the next year.

Additionally, 43% said they plan to increase their own gold reserves — the highest percentage since the survey began in 2018.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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