The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stock Light & Wonder Inc. (ASX: LNW) is a company that has captured the attention of Macquarie analysts because of the potential for big returns.
Light & Wonder is a cross-platform global gaming company that is a significant player in slot machines in the North American market. The machines can be bought or leased. It also offers digital game content, which can be accessed online, including through mobile devices. The business also has casino management systems, as well as iGaming and casino table games.
Macquarie is bullish about the business after seeing the latest data from US casinos.
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US casino revenue trends
Macquarie said in a note that it had looked at US casino gaming revenue data from 26 jurisdictions in August 2025, covering nearly all commercial casinos.
Regional gaming revenue, representing 85% of volumes, came to US$3.8 billion, being 6% growth year-over-year. Macquarie said that 2 percentage points came from openings and expansions in key states, including Illinois, Louisiana and Virginia. Overall, in 2025 year to date, growth has been 3% year-over-year or 1% excluding new openings and expansions.
Las Vegas is seeing particularly strong growth, though it only represented 15% of volume, reaching US$679 million and delivering 6% year-over-year growth. The 2025 year-to-date growth has been 1%, though trends have shown consistent improvement over the year. In August, 'tables' showed 13% year-over-year growth, with softer turnover offset by a "below-average hold rate in the prior period, and with slots flat."
Macquarie said that when isolating gaming product revenue disclosed in 12 jurisdictions, representing a third of total regional gaming revenue, slots were up 5% year-over-year (or 2% in 2025 year to date). Tables revenue in August was down 3% year-over-year (and down 3% for 2025 year to date).
Overall, Macquarie said that US casino gaming revenue remains resilient. It also said that the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas in early October 2025 could be a catalyst, and will see most slot manufacturers announcing new products (with hardware and content).
For the ASX 200 stock Light & Wonder, Macquarie is particularly interested in the reception of the new LightWave cabinet and associated content.
Big potential returns from the ASX 200 stock
A price target is where analysts think the share price will be in 12 months. Macquarie currently has a price target of $180 on the business. That suggests a possible rise of around 40% over the next year. Of course, we should also think about the long-term, not just the next 12 months.
That could mean the ASX 200 stock delivers a significant market-beating result over the next year, if Macquarie is right.
