Where will the CBA share price go next? Here's what the experts say

Is it time to buy the dip on CBA shares?

| More on:
A woman shrugs and pulls awkward expression with her face.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • The CBA share price has recently dropped over 12% since hitting an all-time high in June.
  • It is now trading at a very high P/E ratio compared to other big four banks. 
  • Macquarie, JP Morgan, and Bell Potter predict further falls. 

As the largest company on the ASX, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) stocks are an important part of many investors' portfolios. 

Furthermore, the CBA stock price performance influences ASX ETFs that track the ASX 50, ASX 200, etc. 

From October 2023, to July 2025, the CBA share price was on a bull run, almost doubling in that span. 

During this span, brokers repeatedly warned that it was overpriced. But the CBA stock price continued to climb. 

However, since hitting an all-time high in late June, it has shed more than 12%. 

Many investors have likely been monitoring this drop closely, wondering when the stock has officially reached a point of value. 

Is it still overpriced?

CBA's share price rose for a few reasons.

There was an increase in home loan and business lending, the net interest margin improved, and reported reduced loan losses. But its recent fall reflects concerns over high valuation and broader economic factors.

Last month, the Motley Fool's Tristan Harrison reported that compared to the other big four banks, it is trading at a very high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.

His analysis is certainly worth a read. It now seems the business is not generating the growth to suggest it should trade at such a higher earnings multiple.

It seems brokers tend to agree. Some of the most well known are still tipping a further slide from its current stock price. 

What are brokers saying about CBA shares?

Looking around at current valuations from brokers, it is clear that the general consensus is CBA is still trading well above fair value. 

For investors looking for all the latest valuations in one place, I have compiled some of the most recent updates below. 

CBA shares closed trading yesterday at $167.06. 

The broker with the most negative outlook on CBA shares is Macquarie. The latest Macquarie share price target is $106 on CBA shares. This comes along with an underperform rating. 

This indicates a downside of 36.56% from current levels. 

JP Morgan's price target of $120 and an underweight rating, indicate a further 28% drop. 

Bell Potter has a sell recommendation and a $124 price target, which indicates a fall of 25.78%. 

Foolish Takeaway 

For investors hoping to snap up Australia's largest company at a discount, it would appear brokers believe there is still a further fall to come for CBA shares. 

However it's worth noting, this doesn't guarantee the stock price will continue to fall.

The past two years have shown investors value CBA at a premium due to its position in the Australian economic landscape.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended JPMorgan Chase and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

Three male athletes sprint on an athletics track with the sun low on the horizon behind them representing the race between ASX lithium shares to outperform
Bank Shares

ANZ shares are lagging the other big banks: Here's why

Here's Macquarie's take on the bank's shares.

Read more »

Higher interest rates written on a yellow sign.
Bank Shares

Are CBA shares a good buy amid rising interest rates?

Two leading investment experts deliver their verdicts on the outlook for CBA shares.

Read more »

A man thinks very carefully about his money and investments.
Bank Shares

Why does the CBA share price keep falling? – Expert

After falling 20% recently, are CBA shares a buy?

Read more »

A man in a business suit slides down the handrails of a bank of steel escalators, clutching his documents and telephone.
Bank Shares

Why did CBA shares get smashed in November?

CBA shares plunged more than 11% in November. But why?

Read more »

a man weraing a suit sits nervously at his laptop computer biting into his clenched hand with nerves, and perhaps fear.
Bank Shares

$20,000 invested in CBA shares a year ago is now worth….

CBA shares have tumbled recently, and investors are getting nervous.

Read more »

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

Here is how Morgans rates the big four ASX 200 bank shares

CBA shares are crumbling while Westpac, National Australia Bank, and ANZ have hit new historical highs.

Read more »

Scared, wide-eyed man in pink t-shirt with hands covering mouth
Bank Shares

Bendigo Bank shares crash 20% in November: Are they a buy, hold or sell?

The shares have taken a beating this month.

Read more »

Bank building with the word bank in gold.
Bank Shares

Buy this ASX bank share instead of the 'big four': expert

CBA shares have tumbled in FY26 while ANZ, Westpac, and NAB reached all-time share price highs this month.

Read more »