Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) shares, soon to be known as Elevra Lithium Limited (ASX: ELV) shares, could be dirt cheap at current levels.
That's the view of analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), who are bullish on the lithium miner following the completion of the ASX mining stock's merger with Piedmont Lithium.
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What is the broker saying about this ASX mining stock?
Macquarie highlights that Sayona Mining has released its brownfield expansion plans for the NAL operation. This has led to the broker updating its production and cost estimates. It said:
SYA has released NAL brownfield expansion plans which will bring forward production and deliver improved costs performance, which was highlighted as a potential positive event in our prior note (link). We have lifted our NAL output estimate to ~280kt per year post FY32E reflecting its planned brownfield expansion project. We have also adjusted our AISC in the medium-to-longer term with our long-term (real) costs at US$698/ t which is ~3% above scoping study guidance of US$681/t.
In the near term, Macquarie was pleased to see that management is guiding to stronger than expected production in FY 2026. It adds:
The company has provided FY26 guidance for the first time with production and shipments both at 195-200kt, which is within 3% of VA consensus (small samples) but 7% above MQe. Unit costs of A$1,175-1,275/t (US$765-830/t) came in 2% ahead of MQ estimates and is largely in line with current spot market price of US$810/t. Capex guidance for FY26 is A$40m.
Big potential returns
According to the note, the broker has retained its outperform rating on the ASX mining stock with a $5.50 price target. This new price target reflects adjustments following the merger transaction and reverse split.
Based on its current share price of $3.12, this implies potential upside of 76% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:
Outperform: With continued productivity improvements, SYA could reach a break-even cost position assisted by improving lithium market conditions in the near term. The Tranche 1 Options potentially also unlock additional capital for the company to shore up its cash position.
Valuation: Our target price is now at A$5.50ps post the merger transaction and reverse split. Valuation method unchanged with 75/25 blend of NPV & 4.0x EV/EBITDA. Catalysts: Permitting update for NAL brownfield expansion.
