The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 0.5% at 8,774 points in early afternoon trading.
The local bourse is being dragged down by news that the foreign takeover bid for ASX 200 energy giant Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) is off.
Additionally, the US Federal Reserve just cut interest rates for the first time since December 2024, signalling concern over the economy.
The primary driver of that concern is weak employment growth over the past two months.
US tariffs, illegal immigrant deportations, and various other new fiscal settings have created risks for US inflation and unemployment.
Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has revealed the latest unemployment data for our nation.
Let's take a look.
Image Source: Getty Images
Australian unemployment steady in August
The ABS reported a steady seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 4.2% in August.
This follows a 0.1% fall in unemployment to 4.2% in July, and a 0.2% increase to 4.3% in June.
Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said:
Employment fell by 5,000 people and the number of unemployed fell by 1,000 people in August.
This meant that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2 per cent whilst the participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 66.8 per cent.
Far more women than men lost jobs last month
Crick said a fall in full-time employment, by 41,000 people, drove an overall employment decline last month.
The decline was far more prevalent among female workers.
Of that 41,000 people, 30,000 were women.
The total number of full-time workers in Australia was 10,077,300.
Part-time employment increased by 36,000 people and was evenly spread between men and women.
The total number of part-time workers was 4,549,200.
Crick said the hours worked in August fell 0.4% as a result of fewer people in full-time employment.
The ABS reports both seasonally adjusted and trend data on the jobless rate.
In trend terms, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August.
That followed steadiness at 4.2% in July, and an increase of 0.1% to 4.2% in June.
What this means for interest rates in Australia
The state of our jobs market is a key factor in the interest rate decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
The RBA wants to preserve the current full employment whilst getting inflation sustainably back to the middle of 2% to 3% band.
The RBA Board last met to discuss interest rates in early August.
In the minutes for that meeting, board members agreed they would likely have to continue cutting rates.
Members agreed that – based on what they knew at the time of the meeting – preserving full employment while bringing inflation sustainably back to the midpoint of the target range appeared likely to require some further reduction in the cash rate over the coming year.
The only question that remains, is how quickly should rates come down?
The board members agreed that interest rates should be cut gradually if the labour market remained tight, but if future data indicated a weakening jobs market, then a "slightly faster reduction in the cash rate over the coming year" may be appropriate.
Members noted that such an approach would be appropriate if the labour market turned out already to be in balance.
In such circumstances, maintaining a slightly restrictive stance of monetary policy could result in inflation undershooting the midpoint of the target range as excess capacity emerged in the labour market.
A weakening labour market is now being seen in the US and England.
The Bank of England reduced its interest rates again last month amid upwardly revised forecasts for inflation and near-term unemployment.
In Australia, major job cuts among ASX 200 banks have dominated headlines in recent weeks.
Earlier this month, ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) announced it would cut 3,500 jobs and 1,000 contractors over the next year.
National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) will cut 400 jobs, and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) will cut 145 positions.
The RBA will make its next interest rate decision on 30 September.
