Macquarie tips 23% upside for this dividend paying $8 billion ASX 200 energy stock

Macquarie forecasts a year of outperformance for the ASX energy company.

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock Contact Energy Ltd (ASX: CEN) is slipping today.

Contact Energy shares closed yesterday trading for $8.28. In early afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $8.24 apiece, down 0.5%. That gives the company a market cap of $7.9 billion.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.7% at this same time.

What's Macqaurie forecasting for Contact Energy shares?

Contact is dual listed on the ASX and the New Zealand stock exchange (NZX). The company, a New Zealand-based electricity energy generator and retailer, is New Zealand's leading generator of renewable geothermal electricity.

Over the past 12 months, shares in the ASX 200 energy stock are up 11.4%. And that doesn't include the 33.6 cents a share in unfranked dividends Contact has paid to eligible shareholders over this time.

At the current price, Contact Energy shares trade on an unfranked trailing dividend yield of 4.1%.

And the year ahead may be even more profitable for stockholders.

That's according to the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).

In a report published on Tuesday, following on the ASX 200 energy stock's August operating update on Monday, Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on Contact Energy.

The broker has a 12-month target price target of NZ$11.35 a share. That's 23.2% above the current share price on the NZX of NZ$9.21.

Aussie investors can expect similar, though not identical, price moves for Contact Energy shares on the ASX and the NZX.

What's the latest from the ASX 200 energy stock?

As the Motley Fool reported on Monday, in August, Contact Energy achieved "steady mass market electricity and gas sales of 454GWh … alongside a marked increase in mass market netback to $148.36/MWh compared to $131.36/MWh a year ago".

The ASX 200 energy stock also increased the proportion of its hydro and geothermal generation, helping to drive down the average generation cost.

And Contact Energy continues to progress its renewable energy projects.

Those include its Glenbrook-Ohurua BESS and the Kowhai Park Solar developments, due online by the second quarter of calendar year 2026. Management expects Contact's Te Mihi Stage 2 geothermal project to come online in the third quarter of 2027.

Commenting on the ASX 200 stock's renewable developments at the company's FY 2025 results release in August, Contact CEO Mike Fuge said:

This year demonstrated the critical role geothermal energy plays in the country. This is baseload renewable electricity, not dependent on the weather. Our NZ$1.2 billion investment in Tauhara and Te Huka 3 all comes down to this: delivering the right projects, at the right time, for New Zealand.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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