Yesterday, ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares fell after major news was announced.
ANZ revealed it had agreed to pay $240 million in penalties to settle five ASIC investigations.
As reported by The Motley Fool's James Mickleboro, the largest $85 million fine related to ANZ's role in a 2023 Treasury Bonds issuance, with additional penalties covering reporting errors, account interest, hardship notices, and deceased estates.
Other penalties include $40 million for inaccurate reporting of secondary bond turnover data, $40 million for failing to pay acquisition bonus interest on certain Online Saver accounts, $40 million for breaches in its handling of hardship notices, and $35 million relating to deceased estates.
Given this news, investors may be wondering how this impacts the investment case for ANZ shares.
Let's find out.
Macquarie provides its take
Prior to this announcement, Macquarie had a neutral rating on ANZ shares and a price target of $31.
In a 15 September research note that covered the recent news, Macquarie said this development had not changed its valuation of ANZ shares, affirming its neutral rating and price target.
Given that ANZ shares closed at $32.99 yesterday, this suggests shareholders will lose 1.6% over the next 12 months, when factoring in ANZ's dividend also.
ANZ currently offers a dividend yield of above 5%, which is the most attractive of the big four banks.
Macquarie modified its FY25-FY26 earnings projection by -4%/-1%, to reflect the $240m fine and additional cost to implement the Root Cause Remediation Plan.
However, on the positive side, the broker said, "The settlement with ASIC, while very substantial, removes an overhang for ANZ and leaves the CEO to focus on transformation and broader NFR uplift".
Macquarie also said:
With favourable momentum and the potential for positive news flow at the October Strategy Day, coupled with a ~20% discount relative to NAB and WBC, we see scope for a re-rating in the near term.
Macquarie will host its Strategy Day on 13 October.
The next announcement for shareholders will be its 2H25 results, which are expected to be delivered on 10 November.
ANZ share price snapshot
ANZ shares have risen 15% for the year to date. While this is ahead of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has increased 8%, it trails peers Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), which have risen 20% and 18%, respectively.
