WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares had a rough week.
The release of softer than expected guidance for FY 2026 led to investors selling down the logistic solutions company's shares.
Let's now see what Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has to say about this tech star.
What is the broker saying?
Macquarie highlights that WiseTech Global is focusing on growing its total addressable market (TAM), potentially at the expense of its near term earnings. It said:
Tam expansion and penetration vs near-term earnings. WTC is optimising for long-term value creation. Whilst we like these decisions on an NPV basis, earnings momentum is clear, and consensus CargoWise revenues have an implicit new product assumption beyond what we can see clear evidence for. Execution risk is elevated in the short term.
Commenting on its marketplace plans, Macquarie adds:
Building a multi-sided marketplace requires new products to new customers (BCOs & Ocean/Rail/Terminal operators). This has two impacts: 1) TAM expansion, and 2) product scope expands. WTC's success is driven by a long-term vision, but with a new commercial model, acquisition integration and new product monetisation timing is unclear. Moreover, growth now involves servicing new customers rather than existing customer wallet expansion. Commentary suggested the inflection in 2H26 CargoWise revenues is primarily driven by Nippon Express & Logisteed, not new products.
Time to buy WiseTech Global shares?
According to the note, the broker has a price target of $108.50 on its shares.
As this implies potential upside of approximately 6.5%, Macquarie has put a neutral rating (the equivalent of a hold rating) on its shares.
Overall, the broker likes management's long term focus, but acknowledges that there are execution risks to consider. It concludes:
Management's long-term focus gives us confidence in long-term execution, but a lack of clarity on timing of new product monetisation, potential reinvestment, and the challenges associated with servicing new customers drives tactical view. Neutral.
EPS changes. Our FY26/27/28e/29E earnings by -14%/-28%/-29%/-24%. This reflects e2open, higher interest & D&A, removal of consulting business, and delayed CTO rollout. Details below. Valuation: Our DCF-based target price is A$108.50, reflecting the above earnings changes and the below DCF inputs. Catalysts: New prod. release; further acquisitions; cust. wins, Investor Day.
While Macquarie may be sitting on the fence with this one, it is worth noting that a number of other brokers are bullish.
For example, Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating and $130.00 price target on its shares and Bell Potter has a buy rating and $127.50 price target.
