S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock, Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL), is pushing higher today.
Bellevue shares closed yesterday trading for 87.0 cents. In early afternoon trade on Friday, shares are changing hands for 87.2 cents apiece, up 0.2%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.1% at this same time.
Today's modest outperformance will come as welcome news to shareholders, who've watched Bellevue shares sink 31% since this time last year.
That's despite the 35% increase in the gold price over the past 12 months, with the yellow metal currently fetching US$3,412 (AU$5,220) per ounce.
This has helped drive a 54% one-year gain on the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold stocks.
But Bellevue's sharp underperformance over the past year relative to most of its peers could transform into a year of outsized gains in FY 2026.
That's according to the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), who remain bullish on the gold miner following its FY 2025 results.
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Why Macquarie forecasts a rebound for the ASX 200 gold stock
Bellevue's FY 2025 underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) beat consensus expectation by 17% and were in line with Macquarie's own earnings estimates.
The ASX 200 gold stock achieved this despite higher operating costs.
The broker said that Bellevue's $46 million net loss after tax in FY 2025, on the other hand, "was a large miss" versus its estimates. The big setback was primarily due to the $111 million loss the miner reported on its partial hedge book closeout earlier this year.
Macquarie noted that Bellevue also reported higher interest charges ($10 million higher than its in-house estimates) on borrowings/leases, further contributing to the NPAT miss.
Still, the broker maintained its outperform rating on the ASX 200 gold stock, stressing that the miner delivering on its FY 2026 guidance is crucial.
Bellevue forecasts FY 2026 gold production in the range of 130,000 ounces and 150,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of between $2,600 and $2,900 per ounce.
Management said they expect quarterly performance to progressively ramp up through the year.
Growth capital and exploration expenditure is guided at $80 million to $90 million for FY 2026.
Bellevue said it is targeting 175,000 ounces to 195,000 ounces of annual gold production commencing in FY 2027.
Connecting the dots, Macquarie reduced its price target for Bellevue shares by 4% to $1.20.
Still, that represents a potential upside for the ASX 200 gold stock of more than 37.6% from current levels.
