ASX mining shares have delivered strong price growth amid the iron ore price holding above US$100 per tonne for eight weeks.
The iron ore price has held above US$100 per tonne since 2 July.
Since then, the S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) has risen 16.2% to a new record high of 6,106 points yesterday.
Over this period, the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) has also lifted 13.3%.
By comparison, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has lifted 5.1%.
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Why are ASX mining shares rising?
The stabilisation of the iron ore price has helped propel the ASX iron ore mining shares, despite some price dips during earnings season.
For example, ASX mining share Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) fell 4% on Tuesday after the full-year FY25 report was released.
The pure-play iron ore miner revealed a 41% profit dive, yet the share price decline was just 4% and it began rebounding within two days.
The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price rose 1.6% on the day of its FY25 report, despite revelations of a 26% fall in profit.
Both mining giants slashed their final dividends: Fortescue by 33% and BHP by 19%.
Yet these ASX mining shares — the two largest on the market — continue in an upward trajectory.
Analysts believe a rotation out of banks, particularly the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), is giving miners new support.
Mark Delaney, Chief Investment Officer at AustralianSuper, said he began selling CBA shares three months ago.
Early last month, Delaney told the Australian Financial Review (AFR):
We've rotated back into resources, which might be too early, but … that's sort of what you want to do.
AustralianSuper is the nation's largest superannuation fund and manages about $365 billion in retirement savings.
It's not just ASX iron ore shares that have risen strongly over the past two months.
ASX gold mining shares are up too, as are some copper shares.
The gold price remains supported amid global unease about the reliability of the US dollar as the reserve currency.
In this article, we reveal 3 ASX mining shares rated buys and 1 rated a sell by professional brokers and analysts.
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)
The BHP share price closed at $43.01 yesterday, and is 18% higher since 1 July.
Analysts' opinions are mixed on BHP shares.
Ord Minnett has an accumulate rating on the market's largest ASX mining share.
The broker has a 12-month share price target of $42.50 on BHP stock.
Ord Minnett noted that BHP's full-year report was largely in line with expectations due to a strong performance in the copper segment.
As we covered this week, BHP is now the world's largest copper producer.
The red metal accounted for 45% of BHP's total underlying EBITDA in FY25.
Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)
The Fortescue share price closed at $19.34 yesterday, up 26% since 1 July.
Bell Potter has a selling rating on Fortescue shares.
According to a new note, the broker has downgraded the ASX mining share from a hold to a sell.
Bell Potter also cut its 12-month share price target to $17.05 from $17.40.
Commenting on the full-year report, Bell Potter said:
While it was a good result relative to our (low) expectations, we remain cautious on the outlook relative to the current valuation.
In our view, the current share price reflects the recent uptick in the iron ore price, to which we see limited sustained upside.
Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM)
The Newmont share price closed at $110.58 yesterday, up 24% since 1 July.
Ord Minnett reiterated its buy rating on this ASX gold mining share following its 2Q FY25 report.
The broker has a target price of $115 on Newmont shares.
In a new note, the broker said:
Newmont posted a June-quarter result that beat market and Ord Minnett expectations on production, costs, and operating earnings, and unveiled a further share buyback program of US$3 billion ($5 billion) thanks to its strong fiscal performance –free cash flow was a record US$1.7 billion – and robust balance sheet.
The broker sees growth potnetial ahead for this ASX gold mining share.
Ord Minnett see plenty of value in Newmont – some of its assets are running below optimum levels but the investment in improving grades and operational efficiency should allow their potential to be realised, pushing gold production to around 6.0 million ounces in CY27 from our now increased but still conservative forecast of 5.7 million ounces in CY25.
Getting the execution of these investments right should drive strong earnings growth and provide the impetus for an increase in its valuation multiple …
Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC)
The Capstone Copper share price closed at $10.90 yesterday, up 16% since 1 July.
Macquarie has an outperform rating on this ASX copper mining share with a target price of $12.50 following its 2Q FY25 report.
In a note, Macquarie discussed the impending expansion of its Mantoverde Optimized (MV-O) project in Chile.
Macquarie forecasts copper production to rise from 102,100 tonnes in 2025 to 147,200 tonnes in 2027.
The broker says the MV-O expansion is a low-capital-intensity growth path for Capstone Copper.
