If you are hunting for a winning combination of major upside potential and an attractive dividend yield, then look no further that the ASX 300 stock in this article.
That's because analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believe that it will deliver both for investors over the next 12 months.
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Which ASX 300 stock?
The stock that could be a buy according to Macquarie is Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN).
It is an online lottery ticket seller and provider of a turnkey solution to charitable lotteries.
Macquarie was pleased with its performance in FY 2025. And while its earnings were down year on year, they were ahead of expectations. In addition, it was pleased to see the ASX 300 stock grow its share of the local market. It explains:
Jumbo reported A$40m FY25 NPAT, down 10% yoy and +5% above MQe (A$38m) / Visible Alpha (A$38m), impacted by lower Australian lotteries volumes. Jumbo's EBITDA margin was 47%, down 1.1%pts yoy, and within guidance (46-48% range). The stand-out of the result was the sequential improvement in Australian lotteries market share, supported by product mix and higher marketing spend driving customer activity.
Looking ahead, the broker believes that Jumbo is positioned to return to profit growth in FY 2026. It is forecasting "A$48m FY26 NPAT, +19% yoy."
This is expected to be driven partly by its Australian operations. It adds:
Key drivers are: +8.5% FY26 Australian lottery TTV growth, with 45% digital penetration (2H25 = 43%), supporting +18% digital growth. Assuming Jumbo holds market share we forecast +22% Australian lotteries TTV growth, with a slighter higher revenue margin versus FY25 (MQe = 24%, +0.4%pts yoy) assuming that Jumbo raises Powerball pricing 5c over and above the 17% price November 2025 increase.
Big returns
As mentioned at the top, Macquarie is expecting big returns from this ASX 300 stock over the next 12 months.
In response to its results, the broker has retained its outperform rating and $13.90 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of $11.42, this implies potential upside of 22% for investors.
In addition, it is forecasting fully franked dividends of 64 cents per share in FY 2026 and then 73 cents per share in FY 2027. This equates to dividend yields of 5.6% and 6.4%, respectively.
Overall, Macquarie thinks that its shares are being undervalued by the market and highlights the discount they trade on compared to peers. It concludes:
Jumbo improved Australian lotteries market share (key debate), has inorganic growth possibilities (M&A and Lotterywest) and attractive growth (+14% EPS CAGR, FY25-28). We see an ongoing re-rating from 15x 12-months forward P/E; which is a 35% discount to the ASX300 Industrials (22x).
