ASX 200 retailer Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) is actively working to reduce the cost burden of US tariffs in FY26 and into the future.
Breville is one of the first ASX 200 companies to announce concrete changes to its manufacturing network in response to the tariffs.
Breville designs, manufactures, and distributes kitchen appliances, such as coffee machines and blenders, around the world.
In FY25, Breville accelerated its existing manufacturing diversification program, commenced in FY22, to help reduce how much it would have to pay in tariffs to get its products into the US, where it sells 45% of its total inventory.
Principally, this means moving a large portion of its manufacturing out of southern China and into nations subject to lower tariffs.
When the US tariffs were announced in April, Breville was one of the few ASX companies to immediately issue a statement to investors.
At the time, Breville explained that it manufactured about 90% of its products, by value, in China, and sold about 45% into the US.
In FY22, Breville decided to move its production of 120V products (sold in the US) out of China to de-risk its supply chain.
The US tariffs put a rocket under those plans, and last week, we got an update on how things are progressing.
Image source: Getty Images
ASX 200 retail share weakens on FY25 results
The Breville share price fell 2.2% last Wednesday after the company released its FY25 results.
Breville reported a 10.9% lift in revenue to $1,696.6 million, a 10.2% increase in EBIT to $204.6 million, and a 14.6% rise in net profit after tax (NPAT) to $135.9 million for FY25.
Managing Director and CEO, Jim Clayton, said:
After multiple years of macro uncertainty and post-COVID normalisation, BRG Group returned to double-digit revenue growth in Global Product across all three Theatres (Americas, EMEA, and APAC).
Also in FY25, Breville launched several new products and expanded its direct retail offering into China and the Middle East.
How did US tariffs impact Breville in FY25?
The ASX 200 retail share tanked on the day the original US tariffs were announced.
Breville said it brought additional inventory into the US in the months before the widely anticipated tariff announcement in April.
This was the main reason for a $93.5 million inventory increase to $426.3 million as of 30 June, up 28%.
Despite the additional storage and logistics costs involved, Breville closed out FY25 unleveraged with $105.7 million in cash.
It also has $388.2 million worth of unused debt facilities available.
Breville made several investments in FY25 to advance its manufacturing diversification program, including $21.4 million in tooling and fixed assets for the new or expanded production sites.
Most of its new manufacturing locations for US products are in Mexico, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia.
Breville said:
This relocation will continue through FY26 with an initial target to move 90% of Americas production value, or ~40-45% of total BRG Group production value, to these new locations.
The Mexico project has been running for some time, but alongside the new locations, it was significantly accelerated in FY25.
How is the diversification program progressing?
As of this month, Breville estimates that approximately 65% of its US gross profit has come from products manufactured outside of China.
The company said its diversification program would continue into FY27.
The hope is that by the end of December this year, non-China production will represent approximately 80% of its US gross profit.
How much manufacturing will continue in China?
The majority of 240V products, which are sold in other markets like Australia and Europe, will continue to be produced in southern China.
Those products represent about half the company's production by value.
Breville said the new locations for 120V product manufacturing also provided optional future backup for the production of 240V products in the event of a climate or geopolitical interruption.
Breville benefits from revised US tariffs
Under the original tariffs, there was a 34% tariff for China, 20% for the European Union, 32% for Indonesia, and 49% for Cambodia.
Goods from Mexico that complied with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remained exempt, while most non-compliant USMCA goods would have a 25% tariff.
This month, the US revised the reciprocal tariffs, keeping a 34% tariff on China and maintaining the arrangements with Mexico.
But the tariffs in all the other nations relevant to Breville's manufacturing network fell.
The US reduced the tariff on the EU from 20% (and a threatened 30%) to 15% (relevant for Breville's Lelit range made in Italy).
Indonesia's tariff dropped from 32% to 19%. Cambodia's tariff went from 49% to 19%. Those are very beneficial changes for Breville.
The ASX 200 retail share rose 1.1% on news of the tariff revisions.
Despite this good news, Breville still faces 'a material step up in input costs for US sales' in FY26 and beyond.
To mitigate this, Breville said it would consider distribution channel adjustments and raising prices where appropriate, among other things.
Breville concluded:
It is too early to predict how the various forces will play out across the next 12 to 18 months, a period of undoubtedly higher input costs for US products, coupled with potential second and third order effects, globally.
What do the brokers think of this ASX 200 retail share?
Macquarie was impressed with Breville's organic growth, supported by new products and its entry into new markets, in FY25.
The broker maintained its outperform rating on the ASX 200 retail share but trimmed its 12-month price target from $40.20 to $39.20.
Macquarie said it considered FY26 a "transition year" for the company, and was rolling forward its $39.20 valuation to FY27.
The Breville share price closed at $34.59 on Monday, down 1.54%.
Thus, Macquarie's target implies a potential 13% upside over the next two years.
Macquarie said Breville would continue to invest in growth and that the impact of US tariffs on earnings would be "transitory".
The broker said:
We expect EBIT margins to decline more than 100bps, and bottom, in FY26.
We forecast EBIT margins to recover over FY27-FY28, as BRG balance growth investment against delivering earnings.
UBS also has a buy rating on this ASX 200 retail share. It has a 12-month share price target of $39.80 for Breville.
As my colleague Tristan reports, UBS forecasts a 2% decline in EBIT in FY26 for Breville, but acknowledges there is a "wide range of potential outcomes" depending on what Breville does with product prices, distribution, and how it manages its costs.
The broker projects a flat NPAT of $135 million in FY26 and a gradual increase to $245 million by FY30.
ASX 200 retail share price summary
The Breville share price has risen by just 2.3% over the past 12 months.
