Monash IVF Ltd (ASX: MVF) shares are down 1.44% to 69 cents on Monday, whilst the broader market is higher.
The S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) is currently up 0.28% and reached another new record of 8,992 points in early trading.
Last Friday, Monash IVF shares were smashed after the in-vitro fertilisation provider revealed its full-year FY25 results.
The ASX 300 healthcare share tumbled 13.1% on the day, and closed the week down 16.7%.
Top broker Macquarie has released a new note on Monash IVF shares today.
Let's see what the analysts have to say.
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Monash IVF shares languish despite positive broker note
Macquarie has maintained its outperform rating on Monash IVF shares for the next 12-month period.
However, the broker has downgraded its 12-month price target significantly from $1.30 to $1.
That still suggests a large potential upside of 45% for investors who buy Monash IVF shares today.
Before we get into why Macquarie is backing this ASX 300 healthcare share for growth, let's review the company's FY25 report.
Recap on FY25 results from Monash IVF
Here are the key points from the full-year FY25 report:
- Revenue increased 6.7% to $271.9 million
- Underlying Group earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) increased 5.6% to $66.3 million
- Australian segment underlying EBITDA increased by 3.9% to $61.5 million
- International segment underlying EBITDA increased by 32.7% to $4.9 million
- Underlying EBITDA margin of 24.4%, largely in line with FY24
- Underlying Group net profit after tax (NPAT) of $27.4 million, down 8.1%, in line with updated guidance issued in May 2025
- Reported NPAT of $25.7 million, up from a FY24 loss of $5.9 million following NiPGT class action settlement
- Net debt increased by $40.9 million to $89.6 million as at 30 June, with a net debt to equity ratio of 35.7% and a net leverage ratio of 1.7x
- No final dividend for FY25
Monash IVF was in the news in FY25 after two incidents, which occurred years apart, came to light.
The company was forced to confirm a media report of a patient receiving the incorrect embryo, then told the market of a second case.
Monash IVF shares crumbled to a 52-week low of 54 cents the day the company announced the second incident.
CEO and managing director Michael Knaap resigned, and CIO and company secretary, Malik Jainudeen, became Acting CEO.
The company commissioned an independent review into the two incidents and announced its completion last Wednesday.
Aside from the obvious brand damage these incidents caused, Jainudeen said there were other challenges in FY25, including weaker demand for Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) overall.
Monash IVF provided guidance for FY26, estimating its underlying NPAT would be between $20 million and $23 million.
This would be well below the FY25 NPAT of $27.4 million, which was 8.1% lower than FY24.
The company said the lower guided NPAT reflected the continuation of lower domestic demand, the deferral of indexation-related patient price increases in Australia, higher depreciation and amortisation; and higher interest costs on infrastructure investment and larger debt.
What does Macquarie think?
In its note today, Macquarie said it expected a rebasing of earnings in FY26, with recovery from FY27.
Macquarie thinks the incidents and other challenges have been captured in the reduced price of Monash IVF shares today.
Looking ahead, the broker expects the improving economy to support better earnings growth from FY27.
The broker said:
Despite incidents and FY26 downgrade we believe these are captured in the share price, with valuation undemanding.
We see upside over the medium-term from an improving macro environment, increased genetic testing, underlying structural demands, demographic and social changes.
