Where next for the CBA share price?

After dominating so much of the ASX headlines this past year, is the run over for CBA?

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have been hotly covered over the past year or so. 

It's been for a good reason. Australia's largest company hit record high after record high this year, reaching $192 in June.

It sits $50 billion clear of Australia's second-largest company with a market cap of $286.2 billion. 

But since hitting record highs in late June, the CBA share price has dropped roughly 9%. 

Additionally, Commonwealth Bank reported a near-flat profit result last week. The bank saw higher funding costs and slower lending growth pressure margins.  

This resulted in a 5% tumble on August 13th. 

So is this a chance to buy the dip? Or is this just the start of correction territory?

What do the fundamentals say? 

There are tools we can broadly use to determine a stock price. 

One is the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). 

A share's P/E ratio tells you how much investors will pay per dollar of the company's earnings. It provides a standardised way to compare the prices of different shares by benchmarking their share price against their earnings.

At the time of writing, the CBA P/E ratio sits at roughly 28.2. 

There's no hard and fast line that separates a good or bad P/E ratio or that indicates a share is cheap or expensive. However, investors generally consider stocks with P/E ratios of below 15 as cheap, while shares with a P/E ratio above 18 can be thought of as expensive.

This needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as CBA has proven time and again that investors are happy to scoop up shares despite a P/E ratio higher than 20.

What are experts saying?

Broker Macquarie sees CBA shares as significantly overvalued right now, describing the P/E ratio as "stretched."

The broker has a 12-month share price target of $105. 

This is approximately 39% lower than yesterday's closing price. 

It is forecasting fully franked dividends per share of $4.92 in FY 2026, $4.96 in FY 2027, and then $5.00 in FY 2028.

The team at Bell Potter also view CBA shares as overvalued, with a price target of $120. 

This indicates a downside of roughly 30%. 

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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