The Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) share price is 1.84% higher in afternoon trade on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the stock is changing hands at $29.695 a piece. Over the year, Ampol shares are 4.3% lower.
The small share price rise follows the petroleum refiner and distributor's H1 2025 financial results, posted on Monday morning.
Ampol's RCOP (group replacement cost operating profit) EBITDA fell 12% from the prior corresponding period, and its RCOP EBIT was 20% lower. The group's net profit after tax (excluding significant items) was down 23% period-on-period.
"Against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and associated global demand concerns, Ampol has focused on what it can control to deliver another resilient performance… We are clear on our strategy, have the team to deliver on these priorities, and are well placed to grow earnings over time," Ampol said.
Investors don't appear to be too concerned about the result. Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) also told investors that the numbers were broadly in line with its expectations.
Here's what the broker has to say about Ampol shares over the next 12 months.
Ampol shares could be boosted by acquisition
In a recent note to investors, Macquarie confirmed its neutral stance on the stock and raised its 12-month target price to $30.25, up from $28.15 last week.
This represents a potential 1.9% upside for investors, according to the share price at the time of writing.
Macquarie has reduced its earnings per share (EPS) expectations by 2.6% for FY25 following lower earnings from Ampol's Lytton oil refinery in Brisbane. Estimates for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are +2.6%, +3.7%, and +7.2%, respectively. Macquarie expects the company's EG Group acquisition will partly offset higher Lytton costs.
Macquarie expects the EG Group acquisition will add $53 million EBIT in the 2026 calendar year. It expects the move will add another $172 million EBIT in the 2027 calendar year.
"We have assumed ACCC approvals are received (20 sites divested) in CY26, and we reflect EG earnings from 2H26 [and] have raised Convenience Retail EBIT +$172m in CY27 (first full year of ownership) and $178m in CY28 (includes execution of synergies and further U-GO rollout). We haven't given much credit for market share capture on rebranding to U-GO for now, but this represents potential upside," it said in the note.
Regarding the broker's share price valuation, it said: "Our 12-mth TP is +7.5% to $30.25 on a higher 16x P/E multiple (was 15x) and EPS upgrades above. Reflects improved growth outlook secured with EG (pending ACCC, but likely to proceed in our view given network rationalisation)."
"The EG opportunity, coupled with U-GO strategy, places ALD back on a structural earnings growth trajectory (in non-refining), exercising balance sheet (3.0x adj pro-forma ND/EBITDA). Pushes out prospect of special div's, but the trade-off seems very sensible to us."
