S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dividend stock Amotiv Ltd (ASX: AOV) looks well-placed for a year of material outperformance.
That's according to the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).
Shares in the auto parts retailer are down 0.9% today, trading for $9.25 apiece.
That sees the Amotiv share price down 13.6% since this time last year.
Though that doesn't include the 40.5 cents in fully franked dividends the company paid out over the year. At the current share price, that sees the ASX 200 dividend stock trading on a fully franked yield of 4.4%.
The final dividend of 22 cents per share, declared last week, is still up for grabs.
If you want to bank that passive income payout, you'll need to own shares by market close on 26 August. Amotiv shares trade ex-dividend on 27 August. You can then expect to receive that payout on 16 September.
Now, here's why Macquarie is bullish on the outlook for Amotiv shares in the year ahead.
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Why this ASX 200 dividend stock could fly higher
Amotiv reported its full-year FY 2025 results on Wednesday, 13 August.
Highlights included revenue of $997.4 million, up 1% from FY 2024, while underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $226.4 million were up 1.2%. Management credited the modest improvements to cost reduction initiatives and the realisation of operational efficiencies.
Investors responded to the results by sending the ASX 200 dividend stock up 2.2% on the day.
Digging into the numbers, Macquarie said the result was mixed by segment, but noted that Amotiv is "managing the tough operating environment well".
The broker also said that Amotiv's FY 2026 EBITA guidance of $195 million, representing 1.6% year-on-year growth, is "achievable and in line" with both its own estimates and consensus estimates.
In fact, Macquarie believes guidance could be on the conservative side, noting, "We expect management has taken a cautious view on 4WD/APG earnings given the impairment, changes in vehicle mix, and subdued volumes in some models."
Connecting the dots, Macquarie concluded:
While headline numbers were pre-reported, key positives were Amotiv Unified program ahead of schedule and strong core PTU segment margins. FY26 guidance appears cautious but reflects recent volatility in the LPE/4WD segments. See upside risk if market conditions improve.
Macquarie has an outperform rating on the ASX 200 dividend stock with a 12-month price target of $11.66.
That represents a potential upside of more than 26% from the current Amotiv share price. And that's not including those upcoming FY 2026 dividends.
