Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) shares arguably first burst onto the ASX scene back in 2020 and 2021. It was one of the poster children of stocks that benefited enormously from those COVID-era lockdowns. Back then, many investors made a motza as Temple & Webster shares rocketed from around $2 each in March 2020 to over $13 each by October of that year.
History seems to be repeating itself in recent years. After cooling off from its pandemic boom, Temple & Webster shares got as low as $3.20 by early 2022. But the company has once again been on a tear over the past two years. Last year saw the stock gain more than 50%.
And in 2025 so far, investors have watched as Temple & Webster shares have rocketed another 81.5%. As it stands today, investors have banked a return of more than 100% from this online furniture retailer over the preceding 12 months. And that's despite the 16.5% or so the company has lost since 14 August, when it reported its latest full-year earnings.
As we covered at the time, these earnings contained some pretty impressive numbers. Revenues for FY2025 came in at $601 million, up 21% over the previous financial year. Meanwhile, Temple & Webster posted a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $11.3 million, up a whopping 533% year over year.
It seems investors were expecting even better numbers, though.
So what's next for the company now? Well, it might be a good opportunity to discuss what an ASX expert thinks.
Analysts at Macquarie have just released some thoughts on Temple & Webster, and it makes for some interesting reading.
ASX expert sees even more upside for Temple & Webster shares
Macquarie's analysts loved the company's recent earnings, as well as the optimistic guidance Temple & Webster provided. It commented this:
Sales momentum is improving into FY26e, with a catalyst-rich next twelve months from rate-cuts and improving consumer demand. We forecast revenue growth to remain elevated at 28% y/y in FY26E, mirroring June-August trading so far…
Near-term consumer demand tailwinds from interest rate cuts and home construction, alongside longer-term tailwinds from online retailing growth (Australian online penetration -12ppts vs US/UK average) should compound TPW's growth.
With a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 262, Macquarie did acknowledge that some may judge Temple & Webster shares as appearing "expensive, even to long-term forward-looking investors". Even so, analysts argued that "accelerating earnings momentum and a currently underutilised balance sheet suggest upside".
As a result, Macquarie has decided to maintain its 'outperform' rating on Temple & Webster shares. Analysts have also increased Macquarie's 12-month share price target on the company from $17.60 to $31.30 a share.
If realised, investors would enjoy an additional upside of almost 32% from where the shares sit today. No doubt investors will be delighted to hear this. Let's see if Macquarie's predictions for Temple & Webster shares turn out to be on the money, though.
