Macquarie tips 13% upside for this ASX REIT

The REIT released its FY25 results this week.

| More on:
View from below of a banker jumping for joy in the CBD surrounded by high-rise office buildings.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Arena REIT (ASX: ARF) is trading 0.26% lower at $3.87 at the time of writing in early Friday morning trade. For the year, the share price is 4.68% lower.

The ASX REIT enjoyed a 4.02% jump in its share price at the close of the ASX on Thursday. This followed the release of its robust FY25 earnings result.

Arena announced a 17% increase in its net operating profit. It also revealed a 42% increase in its statutory net profit and a 15% rise in total assets.

Arena REIT's net operating profit reached $73 million for the full year ended 30 June 2025. This result equated to earnings per share (EPS) of 18.55 cents, an increase of 5.1% on the prior period. Arena has paid a dividend per share of 18.25 cents for the full year, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year. 

According to the announcement, key contributors to the result were income growth from contracted annual and market rent reviews, acquisitions, and development projects completed in FY 2024 and FY 2025. 

Here's the latest stance that Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has on the ASX REIT.

Macquarie updates its 12-month outlook

In a recent note to investors, the broker confirmed the outperform rating on Arena REIT. It also raised the target price to $4.01, up from $3.96 previously.

At the time of writing on early Friday morning, this represents a potential 3.6% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

"Valuation: TP +1.3% to $4.01 reflecting roll-forward of the valuation and minor assumption adjustments," Macquarie said.

"Maintain Outperform. ARF 12-month forward DPS yield is 5.2% while also offering an attractive and defensive DPSg profile (above asset heavy AREITs) of +4.5% 3-year CAGR FY25-28."

What else did Macquarie have to say?

The broker notes that the REIT's income growth has been boosted by rent reviews.

Arena REIT completed 30 market rent reviews in FY25 at an average increase of 6.8%. Of those reviews, 25 were capped at 7.5%, with the reviews hitting the cap on 21 properties. In FY26, ARF has 43 market rent reviews representing 10% of the portfolio's income. Of the reviews, 31 are capped at 7.5% and 12 are uncapped. 

Macquarie believes the company has scope to push rents, given that net rent to gross ELC operator revenue dropped to 9.9%. The broker assumes a 6.0% growth of income, subject to market review in FY26.

"ARF long-term total return has outperformed the AREIT sector and closest peer CQE. ELC outperformance can be attributed to strong underlying rent growth, limited cash leakage (to incentive and maintenance capital expenditure) and capitalisation rate compression," the broker said in its note.

It also noted that returns have been enhanced by an enlarged and accelerating development pipeline. 

"ARF's 29 project development pipeline is the largest on record. ARF has increased resources to take advantage of the opportunity now given the phase of the cycle. The $176m of capex outstanding (total $227m) will be spread evenly over FY26/27 with a target yield on cost of 6.0% vs. the passing yield for the ELC portfolio of 5.41%."

On another note, Macquarie also comments about Arena REIT CEO Rob De Vos' plans to step down after the company's AGM in November. He'll be replaced by CIO Justin Bailey. 

"We expect a continuation of ARF's strong strategy execution and financial discipline that has driven outperformance of A-REIT peers over the last 6.5 years (facilitated by generating an underlying business compound annual total return of 14.9% based on change in NTA plus distributions)," Macquarie said.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on REITs

Businesswoman holds hand out to shake.
REITs

Takeover bid in the wings for this major self storage outfit

Shares in National Storage have been placed in a trading halt ahead of an announcement about a possible takeover bid…

Read more »

woman using laptop in campervan
REITs

Bell Potter just upgraded its view on this booming REIT

This REIT is expected to continue its rise.

Read more »

A businessman compares the growth trajectory of property versus shares.
REITs

What is Bell Potter's view on REITs?

Have you considered REITs for your portfolio?

Read more »

Five young people sit in a row having fun and interacting with their mobile phones.
REITs

Macquarie names 5 ASX REITs that could return up to 76%

The broker expects big things from these REITs.

Read more »

REIT written with images circling it and a man touching it.
REITs

Macquarie predicts 18% upside for this ASX 200 REIT

This ASX REIT could have more room to grow.

Read more »

Hand holding Australian dollar (AUD) bills, symbolising ex dividend day. Passive income.
Share Market News

Growthpoint offers a 7% yield and the market's barely noticing

Investors are ignoring the this ASX REIT's income play.

Read more »

Two brokers analysing stocks.
REITs

Goodman shares drop following Q1 update

Let's see how this blue chip has started the new financial year.

Read more »

sad child holds paper and leans with head in hand near a computer looking downcast.
REITs

RBA decision looms: These 4 property stocks could benefit from another hold decision 

All eyes are on the RBA on Tuesday.

Read more »