Will IAG shares rise further after 50% profit surge in FY25? Macquarie delivers verdict

IAG reported a 51.3% increase in net profit to $1.36 billion in FY25 and a 19-cent final dividend.

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Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) shares are marginally higher on Thursday at $8.50 per share, up 0.12%.

IAG shares are underperforming the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is up 0.55% and reached a new record earlier.

The ASX 200 financial share rose by 2.2% in early trading yesterday after the general insurer released its full-year FY25 results.

However, IAG shares lost their mojo after lunchtime yesterday and retraced their gains to finish even at $8.49.

So, what do the professionals think of IAG's FY25 results?

Today, top broker Macquarie released a note updating its rating and 12-month price target for IAG shares.

But before we get to that, here's a quick recap of IAG's results.

IAG profit soars 50% in FY25

IAG reported a 51.3% year-over-year increase in net profit after tax (NPAT) to $1.36 billion.

The company's insurance profit was $1.74 billion, up 21.2% on FY24.

The gross written premium (GWP) rose 4.3% year over year to $17.11 billion. The net earned premium lifted 8% to $9.98 billion.

IAG paid out $10.2 billion in claims in FY25.

Its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital of $3.94 billion is up 17% from FY24.

IAG shares will pay a final dividend of 19 cents per share with 40% franking.

This is an 11.8% increase from last year's final dividend.

The full-year dividend for FY25 was 31 cents per share, up 14.8% from FY24.

CEO Nick Hawkins said all divisions of the company delivered a positive financial and operational performance.

He said IAG's profit bounce was also due to fewer natural disasters over the 12 months and strong investment markets.

Hawkins said:

We have successfully set our business for growth, investing to create a scalable business which enables us to grow quickly and efficiently.

What's next for IAG shares in FY26?

IAG provided FY26 guidance of "low-to-mid single digit" growth for the GWP.

The company forecasts a reported insurance profit of between $1.45 billion and $1.65 billion next year.

That would equate to a reported insurance margin of 14% to 16%.

IAG said its forecasts do not include the impact of its acquisitions of RACQ Insurance (RACQI) and RAC Insurance (RACI).

The insurer expects the RACQI acquisition to be completed on 1 September.

IAG reckons that acquisition alone would result in GWP growth rising to approximately 10%.

What does Macquarie make of all this?

Macquarie maintains its neutral rating on IAG shares.

After reviewing the FY25 numbers, the broker has shaved its 12-month share price target from $9.20 to $9.10.

The broker said:

The final dividend slightly missed VA consensus expectations as the company retains excess capital to complete the pending acquisition of RACWA.

Trading at only a ~3.8% premium to weighted peers on a 2-yr fwd PE basis, we see current valuation as fair and retain our Neutral rating.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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