Bravura Solutions Ltd (ASX: BVS) shares were sold off on Wednesday after investors responded negatively to its full year results.
Unfortunately, the wealth management software solutions company's shares have continued to slide on Thursday and are down a further 5.5% to $1.91 at the time of writing.
This means that they have lost 22% of their value over the last two trading sessions.
Let's see if the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believes that this could be a buying opportunity for investors.
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Should you buy Bravura Solutions shares?
Before tackling that question, let's look at what the broker is saying about the result that caused the selloff.
Macquarie notes that Bravura Solutions delivered a result ahead of expectations in FY 2025, but its outlook commentary was a touch disappointing. Particularly given customer losses, which have led to a sharp revision in its long term growth forecasts.
Speaking about the year ahead, the broker said:
FY26 Underlying Revenue guidance of "in-line with FY25", is expected to be primarily driven by existing customers in EMEA and APAC, cross-sell opportunities and some new business wins offset by client exits/ reductions.
The client exits/ reductions impact includes: 1) ~$5.0m impact from one of three customer exits Bravura disclosed in Nov. 2022 (this customer was not part of the reported FY25 attrition, and one of the other three customer exits from 2022 currently remains a client); and 2) $6.5m impact of exits during FY25. On a combined basis the client exits/ reductions impact equates to a ~4.5% headwind against total revenue in FY26. FY26 guidance is for Cash EBITDA to be above $50m (vs FY25 $43.8m), and implies at least ~3% opex reduction. The Cash EBITDA guidance allows BVS some flexibility for investment in new opportunities as they emerge. BVS also continue to evaluate opportunities for broader cost out and further efficiencies.
Time to buy?
Despite falling heavily this week, Macquarie isn't in a rush to buy Bravura Solutions shares.
That's because its lowered long term growth assumptions have led to a significant reduction in its valuation.
According to the note, Macquarie has downgraded Bravura Solutions shares to a neutral rating with a price target of $2.03 (from $3.17). This is only modestly ahead of its current share price.
Commenting on its neutral rating, the broker said:
Downgrade to Neutral (from Outperform). While we have upgraded earnings, our cash flow forecasts not materially impacted. Client attrition risk and growth contribution from cost out has caused us to cut our longterm growth from 1.0% above the terminal rate to 1.5% below.
