The Australian share market has historically generated an average annual return in the region of 10%.
But investors don't have to settle for that. Not when there are cheap ASX stocks out there that could generate even larger returns.
For example, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believes that the ASX financials stock in this article could rise 45%+ from current levels.
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Which ASX financials stock?
The stock that Macquarie is tipping as a buy is fund manager GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG).
It highlights that GQG Partners released its latest funds under management (FUM) update last week, which revealed a disappointing decline. It said:
FUM was $166.6bn at Jun-25, -3.4% MoM. Net flows were negative, -$1.4bn in July, with $1bn of this attributable to one institutional client. Recent months of volatile net flows has resulted in average net flows for LTM falling to ~$1.3bn. Net flows were 11.1% of opening FUM on a rolling 12mth basis.
GQG portfolios remain defensively positioned, resulting in all strategies underperforming their respective benchmarks FY25YTD. […] As GQG maintains defensive positioning across all strategies, continued underperformance could potentially be a headwind for future net flows.
Big return potential
As mentioned at the top, Macquarie believes this ASX financials stock could generate big returns over the next 12 months.
According to the note, the broker has retained its outperform rating on GQG Partners' shares with a reduced price target of $2.64 (from $2.90).
Based on its current share price of $1.80, this implies potential upside of 47% for investors between now and this time next year.
In addition, the broker is expecting some very big dividend yields from the fund manager in the near term.
It has pencilled in dividends of 14.7 US cents per share in FY 2025, 15.5 US cents per share in FY 2026, and then 16.4 US cents per share in FY 2027.
Based on its current share price and the latest exchange rates, this equates to dividend yields of 12.5%, 13.2%, and 13.9%, respectively.
This boosts the total potential 12-month return to approximately 60%.
Macquarie thinks that its shares are just too cheap to ignore right now. Especially for income investors. Commenting on its outperform rating, the broker said:
Outperform. GQG is trading at <8x NTM P/E with a 11-12% yield. Valuation: Our TP is $2.64 (previously $2.90), with earnings changes reflecting lower flows expectations and updated FX. We lower our valuation to be the mid-point of P/E range of 10-11x (previously 10-12x) to reflect outflow risk. Catalysts: Monthly FUM updates; 1H25 result 22-Aug-25.
