Lithium shares charge: Is the glut finally over?

Signs point to a lithium price recovery.

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ASX lithium shares are posting solid gains on Monday.

The Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price is up almost 15%, while Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) and IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) have both gained about 10%.

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) is also up, gaining 16% as the miner ends its trading halt prompted by its capital raising efforts.

End of the glut?

ASX-listed lithium miners have seen their share prices plummet and investors take flight amid ongoing oversupply concerns.

The price of lithium sank to a 4-year low in June when lithium carbonate briefly dipped below CNY 60,000 per tonne.

But there are signs the lithium glut could be nearing the end.

The price of lithium carbonate has been surging since early July, gaining about 20% in just over a month.

Australia's lithium players have also seen solid gains over that period.

The Pilbara Minerals share price has gained 65% since July 1, with the lithium miner's shares currently trading at around $2.23.

Mineral Resources, plagued by ongoing leadership and ethics issues, has also seen its share price skyrocket since July 1.

Mineral Resources shares were changing hands for around $21.75 at the start of July and are now going for $38.20 each.

That represents an increase of more than 75% in just over a month.

And IGO shares are up about 35% since the start of the month.

Where to next?

It's been a tough few years for ASX-listed lithium players and their shareholders.

As a key battery-producing mineral, few doubted lithium's significance in the clean energy transition.

But as miners raced to meet soaring demand, supply mounted.

Oversupply concerns heightened as more lithium mines came online amid improved recovery techniques, particularly in China.

Investors saw an imbalance and pivoted from lithium.

Now, the pendulum has swung once again.

Recent forecasts stated "rapid global lithium demand growth" is projected through to 2027.

Reports projected the "strong demand" would be fuelled by continued growth in electric vehicle and battery energy storage system uptake.

Global EV sales grew 28% in 2024 as more consumers in China opted for EVs.

And there is little sign of momentum easing for EV uptake.

Additionally, beyond EVs, emerging tech such as AI and robotics is tipped to further absorb lithium supply.

Morgan Stanley is projecting the global humanoid market to be worth $5 trillion in the coming years.

And the global eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) sector, currently valued at around US$1.9 billion, is expected to grow by about 85% over the next five years.

All this as reports emerge of lithium production in China slowing with the recent closure of a major mine.

Clearly, enthusiasm is returning for ASX lithium shares.

Motley Fool contributor Steve Holland has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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