JB Hi Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) shares are pushing higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) electronics retailer closed yesterday trading for $116.41. In early afternoon trade on Friday, shares are changing hands for $116.78 apiece, up 0.3%.
This sees the stock up an impressive 75.4% since this time last year.
And that's not including the $3.53 a share in fully franked dividends the company paid out over the year.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.1% today and up 14.9% in 12 months.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
With the outperforming ASX 200 electronics retailer set to release its full year FY 2025 results on Monday, 11 August, should you buy JB Hi-Fi shares today?
Are JB Hi-Fi shares a buy ahead of the results?
In a new Australian Consumer Report, released by Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) on Thursday, the broker said the consumer sector has a solid outlook, but the sector has re-rated.
Macquarie noted:
So far this year, a lack of confidence remains the overhang on consumer spending as top-down indicators continue to be supportive. Unemployment remains at historically low levels (though risen recently) and household income growth is running at ~6%.
However, system-level sales growth has remained sluggish, with confidence measures showing uncertainty is weighing on spending (incl. very modest per capita growth based on our HFCD).
Looking forward, we expect improving line-of-sight on disinflation and RBA cash rate cuts to support confidence, in turn driving cyclical categories.
Macquarie said it continues to expect a cyclical recovery over the medium term, but the broker has become more cautious at a stock level.
As for JB Hi-Fi shares, Macquarie forecasts FY 2025 earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of $704 million, up 8.7% from FY 2024. The broker said it expects earnings to be supported "by top line growth given strength in consumer electronics".
Looking to the year ahead, Macquarie forecasts EBIT growth of 7% for FY 2026. That's expected to be driven by the cash rate cutting cycle; continued population growth; and improvements in housing indicators.
And if it's passive income you're after, you may want to buy shares before they go ex-dividend, if not before Monday's full-year results.
According to Macquarie:
We believe JBH will remain in a strong net cash position by Jun-25. With no expected significant investment requirements, we expect a special dividend to be announced in August. We factor for an 80cps special dividend, consistent with the pcp.
Connecting the dots, Macquarie concluded, "JBH's exposure to growing categories which are becoming less discretionary, strong cost discipline, pristine balance sheet, and management quality makes it an attractive proposition."
But the broker sees the ASX 200 stock's valuation as full, noting JB Hi-Fi shares are trading at a roughly 50% premium to their five-year average.
Macquarie downgraded JB-Hi-Fi stock to a neutral rating while increasing its price target by $1.00 a share to $112.00.
