Macquarie predicts 18% upside for this ASX gold mining stock

Here's what the broker thinks of the gold mining stock.

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The Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) share price has climbed another 5% as of lunchtime trading. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands at $3.045 a piece.

Westgold Resources shares have surged over the past week, up 20.4% since last Friday. The share price is 14.47% higher over the year.

The gold miner released its guidance for FY26 yesterday morning. The company expects production of 345k ounces to 385k ounces for the current financial year, a 5.7% to 18% increase from its FY25 production levels.

The company also released its cost guidance for FY26. It is expecting an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2,600 to $2,900 per ounce, compared to $2,666 per ounce in FY25.

Following the announcement, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) wrote a note to investors detailing its latest stance on the stock.

ASX gold mining stock set to soar

The broker has confirmed its outperform rating on Westgold Resources shares and its 12-month target price of $3.60. 

From the share price at the time of writing, that represents a potential upside of another 18.2% for investors.

"No change to our A$3.60/sh target price. Our 50:50 blend of 1.2x NAV and 8x OCF methodology is unchanged," Macquarie said in its note.

The broker explained that Westgold Resources' production guidance of 345-385koz was in line with VA (<5%), but 5% below Macquarie's estimates. 

"It includes 15-30koz of third-party ore purchases, with the rest sourced from WGX's own mines. Production is expected to be 2H weighted due to the timing of mine ramp-ups at Bluebird-South Junction, Great Fingall, and ore deliveries from third parties. Guidance is given at the group level and not by individual asset," Macquarie said.

"WGX has guided AISC to A$2,600-2,900/oz (A$2,750 mid), which is in line with both VA/MQe – both at A$2,761/oz. This includes the indicative costs of third-party ore purchases expected over the year."

Softer guided production (mainly third party) for FY26e sees Macquarie's earnings per share (EPS) estimate reduced by 4% for the year. 

"Notionally carrying forward the reduced third party ounces into FY27e sees EPS reduce 7%, with <1% changes thereafter," it said.

The broker also notes that movements in commodity prices present a significant upside and downside risk to its earnings forecasts and valuation. Macquarie's stance is also based on assumptions within its forecasts for production, capital expenditure, operating costs, and exchange rates. 

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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