Up 39% in a year, what's Macquarie's price target on Aristocrat Leisure shares now?

Macquarie rates the $44 billion ASX 200 gaming technology company as an outperform. But why?

Bernd Struben

Author bio Bernd Struben earned his BA in economics from the University of Michigan in 1991, with post-graduate studies in environmental economics at the University of Connecticut. Over the years he’s written about and analysed the tourism industry in the Caribbean; Europe’s commercial real estate markets; and, since moving to Australia in 2010, global and Aussie share markets. Bernd studies geopolitical and macroeconomic trends, alongside sector and company specific data, to gauge what he believes could be tomorrow's best investments. In his free time, you might find Bernd at the beach with his family or working on his next science fiction novel. Areas of expertise Australian and global share markets Macroeconomic and geopolitical trends Real estate Education Economics, University of Michigan Favorite investment quote "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different." — Sir John Templeton

Published August 7, 2025 2:56 pm AEST

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL) shares are marching higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gaming technology company closed yesterday trading for $70.33. In afternoon trade on Thursday, shares are swapping hands for $71.12 apiece, up 1.1%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time.

Today's outperformance is in line with the longer-term trend, with Aristocrat Leisure shares having gained 39.5% over 12 months, or almost three times the 14.6% one-year gains delivered by the benchmark Aussie index.

Atop those welcome gains, Aristocrat stock also trades on an unfranked trailing dividend yield of 1.2%.

With that picture in mind, here's what the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expect from the ASX 200 gaming company in the year ahead.

Three women laughing and enjoying their gambling winnings while sitting at a poker machine. — Image source: Getty Images

What now for Aristocrat Leisure shares?

Macquarie said the results of the recent Eilers survey, which gauges gaming machine performance in the casino and gambling sector, suggests slot purchasing activity "has been resilient despite economic uncertainty".

In what could bode well for Aristocrat Leisure shares, the Eilers survey revealed that second-quarter slot demand was 10% above the prior forecast.

According to Macquarie:

The survey covers 53% of the North America installed base (568k units at 590 casinos). It shows implied 2Q25 replacement purchases of 18.4k-19.4k (+2% YoY, -13% QoQ) and 21.8-22.8k total units including new/expansionary (flat YoY, -8% QoQ), which would be 10% above the prior forecast.

The survey suggests that purchasing has been resilient despite economic uncertainty and following a period that likely included some pull-forward in demand. Participants expect to replace an average of 6.2% of casino-owned games on their floors over the next 12 months vs 5.6% last quarter. Actual replacement activity continues to outperform expected replacement rates.

As for Aristocrat, the broker said, "Within Class III premium participation Aristocrat's market share held sequentially at 45.8%, with its net installs accounting for 50% of total net market growth."

Macquarie added that Aristocrat Leisure and Light & Wonder Inc (ASX: LNW) "continue to dominate the list of most anticipated premium leased games".

Connecting the dots, Macquarie has an outperform rating on the ASX 200 gaming stock, with a $70 12-month price target on Aristocrat Leisure shares.

You may have noticed that this price target is already modestly below the current share price.

But with the unexpectedly strong slot demand growth in the North American market revealed by the Eilers survey, perhaps the stock could overshoot this target in the year ahead.

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