Copper is one of the most important metals of the modern-day world.
Its widespread industrial applications make it a cornerstone of the global economy, with its significance poised to grow further thanks to its use in electric vehicles (EVs).
And one ASX 200 mining stock with deep exposure to the metal is Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC).
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Significant copper miner
Capstone is a Canadian-based copper producer with a diverse portfolio of assets in the Americas.
The group operates two mines in Chile: Mantos Blancos and Monteverde.
It also owns the Pinto Valley mine in Arizona, alongside the Cozamin mine in Mexico.
And once in production, the fully permitted Santo Domingo project in Chile could represent the next phase of growth for the company.
In addition, Capstone is exploring potential production expansion at its existing operations, including at Mantoverde.
Record-breaking quarter
On Friday, Capstone unveiled its results for the second quarter of 2025, headlined by a series of notable achievements.
The company delivered record quarterly production totalling 57,416 tonnes of copper, driven by a boost in output at Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos.
This outcome marks a 40% surge from the previous corresponding quarter.
In turn, adjusted operating earnings (EBITDA) surged by 75% from the same time last year to reach all-time quarterly highs of US$215.6 million.
Capstone also secured formal approval to lift production at Mantoverde, which could extend the project's mine life from 19 to 25 years.
Looking ahead, the group reiterated its guidance, forecasting that production for 2025 will range between 220,000 and 255,000 tonnes of copper.
And Capstone's solid performance didn't go unnoticed, with leading Aussie broker Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) now projecting a positive outlook for the company.
Macquarie weighs in
Macquarie noted that Capstone's total quarterly production aligned with consensus estimates, while cash costs beat forecasts by 3%.
However, it identified Pinot Valley as a key underperforming asset.
Here, both copper production and cash costs missed estimates by more than 10% due to drought conditions in Arizona and technical issues at the processing plant.
That said, Macquarie believes that Capstone's other copper mines could offset any further production difficulties that may arise at Pinto Valley.
The broker also highlighted progress in Capstone's efforts to sell a minority stake in Santo Domingo.
This process – which it sees as a positive development – is reportedly nearing conclusion with an outcome expected in the third quarter of the year.
Moving forward, Macquarie believes the company will need a strong second half of the year to meet the mid-point of its 2025 production guidance.
Big upside ahead?
Despite its cautious tone, Macquarie appears to be bullish on Capstone's prospects.
It maintained an outperform rating on the company with a 12-month share price target of $13.30 per share.
At the time of writing, Capstone shares are changing hands at $9.63 apiece.
As a result, Macquarie's forecast implies 38% upside potential for this ASX 200 mining stock.
