Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) shares have lifted an impressive 33% so far in 2025.
It is the largest health insurer in Australia and provides cover to almost five million people as one of only 2 ASX listed health insurers.
It is currently the 10th largest company by market cap in the financials sector.
After such a rapid rise in stock price over the last 7 months, here's how broker Macquarie values Medibank Private shares.
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Insurance safe haven
According to Macquarie, private health insurers (PHIs) should hold up even in tougher economic environments.
Macquarie uses its own index, based on Medicare data, to track private hospital admissions and spending as a proxy for health insurance claims.
The latest data shows claims growth is running above pre-COVID trends, suggesting a solid 2H25 result for Medibank.
Claims costs rose by 5.3% (6.1% adjusted), slightly above pre-COVID trends, driven by rising hospital costs, while a 0.5% margin increase could lift earnings per share (EPS).
Coming into results, PHIs should serve as a relative safe haven in a tougher economic environment, particularly due to the weak claims volumes this half.
Share price overvalued
Despite this analysis, the updated price target from Macquarie indicates it may fall over the next 12 months.
On a 12-month view, underlying indexation and volume trends are clear and Medicare data and APRA data align once more. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on MPL-AU.
The broker has a price target of $4.50 on Medibank Private shares.
The insurer's share price closed at $5.04 last week.
Based on the guidance out of Macquarie, the share price could fall 10.71% over the next 12 months.
Other valuations also view Medibank private shares as trading close to or slightly above fair value.
TradingView has a 12 month price target of $4.98. Similarly, online brokerage platform Selfwealth has an average price target of $5.04.
It was a similar message for the other private health insurance stock on the ASX: NIB Holdings Ltd (ASX: NHF).
Macquarie placed a price target of $5.60, which indicates a downside of roughly 25.2% from its current share price of $7.39.
