Why did the BHP share price jump in July?

Let's see why the Big Australian outperformed the market last month.

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The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price was on form in July.

During the month, the mining giant's shares charged almost 7% higher.

This is approximately triple the 2.35% return of the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the period.

Happy man in high vis vest and hard hat holds his arms up with fists clenched.

Image source: Getty Images

Why did the BHP share price outperform?

There were a couple of reasons why the Big Australian's shares outperformed the market last month.

The first was the apparent rotation of investors out of banking stocks into mining and healthcare stocks.

For example, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price ended the month 3.7% lower than where it started it.

What else?

Another reason the BHP share price outperformed the market was the release of a strong quarterly update from the miner.

BHP revealed that it achieved production growth across all key commodities in the fourth quarter, which supported record iron ore and copper production for FY 2025.

Copper production was up 8% to a record of 2,016.7kt in FY 2025 and iron ore production lifted 1% to a record of 263Mt.

Commenting on the performance, BHP's CEO, Mike Henry, said:

BHP delivered record iron ore and copper production, which demonstrates the strength and resilience of our business and underpins our ability to deliver growth and returns to shareholders amid global volatility and uncertainty.

Henry also spoke positively about the miner's outlook. He adds:

Commodity demand globally has remained resilient so far in 2025. That resilience largely reflects China's ongoing ability to grow its overall export base despite a significant decline in exports to the USA, and its ability to deliver robust domestic demand despite the dislocation in the property sector. Copper and steel demand have benefited from a sharp acceleration in renewable energy investment, electricity grid build out, strong machinery exports and EV sales.

Broker reaction

A number of brokers responded positively to the update.

For example, the team at Morgan Stanley put an overweight rating and $44.00 price target on its shares.

Based on the current BHP share price of $39.22, this implies potential upside of 12% for investors over the next 12 months.

Elsewhere, Morgans put an accumulate rating and $43.90 price target on its shares and Citi has put a buy rating and $43.00 price target on them.

Overall, these brokers appear to believe that it isn't too late to invest and the gains could continue in the coming months.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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