BHP shares are about to report one of the most widely anticipated results of this ASX reporting season.
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) hands down its FY26 numbers tomorrow, Tuesday 18 August.
The results will cap off an extraordinary 12 months for the mining giant.
BHP shares finished last week at $63.52, not far below their 52-week high of $65.98.
They have travelled a long way from the 52-week low of $39.30, and the company is now worth roughly $323 billion.
Here are three things worth watching when the result lands.
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1. The dividend BHP shares could deliver
This is the headline number for most income investors.
Copper prices through FY26 were around 35% higher than a year earlier, according to BHP's own operational review.
Iron ore volumes hit a record, and copper output reached approximately 2 million tonnes for the second consecutive year.
Furthermore, strong commodity prices and a healthy balance sheet give the board plenty of room to move.
BHP has a minimum 50% payout policy, but it has frequently paid well above that when cash flows allow.
Anything comfortably north of 60% would likely be taken well by the market.
Iron ore prices have been steadier than most forecasters expected through the second half, but with copper doing the heavy lifting on the earnings line, BHP arrives at this result with a good deal more flexibility than it had a year ago.
2. The Jansen overhang on BHP shares
This is the sore point for BHP investors.
On 18 June, BHP revealed that the capital cost of Jansen Stage 2 had jumped from US$4.9 billion to US$6.9 billion.
First production from Stage 2 was pushed out to late FY2031, a two-year delay on the previous FY2029 target.
The company also flagged an impairment of approximately US$2.3 billion.
That charge should show up in tomorrow's statutory result.
Investors will want to know whether the write-down closes the matter or opens a longer conversation about capital discipline.
It is worth remembering that Stage 1 remains on track for first production in mid-2027.
BHP still expects the combined project to produce 8.5 million tonnes a year, or roughly 10% of global potash supply.
3. Costs and the FY27 outlook
Guidance often moves BHP shares more than the posted numbers do.
Encouragingly, BHP said in July that it expected every asset to land within unit cost guidance despite inflation and supply chain pressures.
That is a strong outcome in the current environment.
The watch item is copper. Grades at Escondida are falling, and FY27 copper guidance points to meaningfully lower volumes than FY26 delivered.
If management can offset that with continued cost control at Western Australia Iron Ore, the market should be reasonably forgiving.
The other thing I will be listening for on the call is what the company says about capital allocation from here, because after the Jansen experience investors may be far less willing to fund large greenfield growth projects.
Foolish takeaway
BHP shares have already done a lot of work this year, which raises the bar for tomorrow's result.
The dividend and the FY27 cost outlook are the two swing factors.
Jansen is a disappointment, but it is a long-dated project and the impairment is now largely known to the market.
For long-term investors, the real question is whether BHP can keep converting a world-class iron ore and copper portfolio into cash right through the commodity cycle.
On that measure, the miner still looks well positioned.
