S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dividend stock Atlas Arteria Ltd (ASX: ALX) is slipping today.
Shares in the international toll road operator and developer closed yesterday trading for $5.22. In afternoon trade on Thursday, shares are changing hands for $5.19 apiece, down 0.5%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.3% at this same time.
Over the past 12 months, Atlas Arteria shares have underperformed the benchmark, slipping 1.0%.
Though that's not including the 40 cents per share in unfranked dividends the company paid out over the full year. At the current share price (at time of writing), this sees the ASX 200 dividend stock trading on a juicy trailing yield of 7.7%.
Turning to the year ahead, atop the passive income on offer, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) has an outperform rating on Atlas Arteria shares.
Here's why.
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ASX 200 dividend stock tipped to outperform
Atlas Arteria released its second quarter (Q2 2025) update on Wednesday.
Investors bid up the ASX 200 dividend stock, with the company reporting a 10.7% year-on-year increase in proportionate toll revenue for the three months ending 30 June. Toll revenue was up 8.1% year to date.
Management said that proportionate toll revenue was boosted by toll increases alongside positive movements in foreign exchange rates.
Indeed, Macquarie noted that a weaker Aussie dollar is positive for the company's valuation.
Atlas Arteria owns toll road concessions in France, the United States, and Germany.
Drilling into its assets, Macquarie noted:
Its largest asset is a 31% stake in the APRR toll road network in France, a 2,318 kilometre inter-city road network with concession expiring in 2035. In the US, ALX owns the Dulles Greenway, a commuter toll road connecting to Washington DC, with concession expiring in 2056. In Germany, ALX owns the Warnow Tunnel, connecting the city of Rostock through a river crossing.
Looking at its biggest asset, Macquarie said, "APRR traffic was positive at +3% for the quarter, which was anticipated with strong Easter holidays, albeit still ahead of expectations."
And the months ahead could also see the ASX 200 dividend stock beat consensus expectations.
"We believe the summer has also started well based off [French toll road operator] SANEF numbers which results in minor revenue improvements in our expectations," Macquarie said.
The broker raised its price target for Atlas Arteria shares from $5.51 to $5.78, with an outperform rating.
That represents a potential share price gain of 11.4% from current levels.
And it doesn't include the market-beating passive income on offer from the high-yielding ASX 200 dividend stock.
