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Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares have delivered investors some benchmark smashing gains since the company reported its last full year financial results on 29 August 2024.
The day before those results were released, on 28 August 2024, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline stock closed trading for $8.12. At market close yesterday, those same shares were changing hands for $10.83 apiece, up 33.4% over this period.
For some context, the ASX 200 has gained 8.6% over this same time.
And investors who held tight since the airline's FY 2024 results release will also have received the long absent Qantas dividend, which was suspended in 2020 amid the global pandemic travel lockdowns.
But amid surging revenues and profits in H1 FY 2025, management declared a fully franked interim dividend of 26.4 cents per share, which was paid out on 16 April.
Clearly then, buying Qantas shares ahead of last year's reporting season would have paid off handsomely.
The million dollar question now is, should you buy the ASX 200 airline stock before it reports its full year FY 2025 results next month, on 28 August?
Can Qantas shares keep flying higher in FY 2026?
For some greater insight into that question, we turn to the Industrials Omnibus report, just out from Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).
Taking a look at the broader sector before we return to Qanats shares, Macquarie said:
With elevated risks during the reporting season, we emphasise defensive positioning, favouring quality growth stocks on lower multiples…
Companies have cut costs, leading to strong operational leverage and cash preservation. While macroeconomic conditions remain volatile, sectors like steel, residential construction and infrastructure show potential for improvement.
Macquarie named five key outperform-rated ASX industrial stocks you may want to buy before the companies report their results. Namely:
- BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL)
- Amcor PLC (ASX: AMC)
- Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB)
- James Hardie Industries PLC (ASX: JHX)
- SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH)
You might have noticed that Qantas shares didn't make the list.
Drilling into the ASX 200 airline, the broker noted:
Domestic discipline should prevail in FY26 albeit with load factors at record levels, growth will be driven by capacity growth, which is skewed towards Jet Star. But market discipline should enable Qantas to capture the lion's share of value coming from lower oil prices.
Macquarie added that at current levels, Qantas' "multiple is moving to back to a premium to historical levels" at 4.3 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).
The broker said this is "reflective of the structural capacity issues, and a disciplined domestic market which is 57% of EBITDA".
Macquarie added:
We see this as sustainable, albeit we are more cautious in believing a multiple lifts to US peers (+0.7x), as fleet age is structurally higher (normalises adds to debt), and competition lower (domestic is over-earning).
The broker said that the airline's 9% earnings per share growth "is attractive", but the company has "limited leverage with load factors at highs".
Macquarie has a neutral rating on Qantas shares with a $10.40 12-month price target.
