S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) could turn a $10,000 investment today into $15,476 by this time next year.
That's according to the team over at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), who believe the Aussie gold miner is well positioned for a strong run following a decidedly difficult year.
You see, the gold price has soared by 28% over 12 months to US$3,310 per ounce as of Tuesday afternoon, according to data from Bloomberg. But the Bellevue Gold share price has gone the other way.
Closing at 84 cents on Tuesday, shares are down 39.9% over this same period.
To put that underperformance into some better context, as of yesterday's close the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold stocks – is up 39.4% over the full calendar year.
Among other headwinds, Bellevue Gold shares have come under selling pressure amid the significant capital expenditure required to develop its Bellevue Gold Project, located in Western Australia.
But the gold miner's underperformance over the past year could be set to turn into some significant outperformance in the year ahead.
Here's why.
ASX 200 gold stock tipped to deliver outsized gains
In a research report published this week, Macquarie noted that Bellevue Gold's "record metrics in the June month were positive, but the focus remains on consistent delivery".
The company released its June quarterly update on Monday.
Among some of those record metrics, the ASX 200 gold stock reported record quarterly processed ore of 287,000 tonnes at 4.5 grams of gold per tonne and a 94.4% recovery rate.
The three-month period saw Bellevue Gold produce 38,900 ounces of gold, which was up 55.0% from the March quarter. The company's quarterly gold sales of 38,800 ounces were up 50.4%.
Also setting a record was quarterly free cash flow, which came in at $67 million. That's up from the $30 million outflow reported in the March quarter.
And Macquarie noted that the ASX 200 gold stock's net cash of $52 million at the end of the quarter was $7 million more than consensus analyst estimates.
Drilling into what matters, Macquarie said:
Various media outlets are reporting a reduction in Aus buyer interest in BGL (known Aus parties reported to have exited, some internationals remain).
Ramp up to 150koz in FY26 and ~190koz over FY27-29 remains crucial (in line with BGL's updated plan), which our outlook reflects. Growth in mining rates and grade performance are key focus areas in the near term, with 4Q showing signs of improvement.
Consistent delivery over the coming quarters will be key to validating our assumptions.
Citing some potential catalysts for Bellevue Gold shares, Macquarie pointed to the miner's upcoming FY 2026 guidance as well as the importance of delivered on its 190,000 annual ounces of gold production plan from FY 2027 to FY 2029.
On Monday, Bellevue said it will provide its FY 2026 annual production and cost guidance in early August.
Connecting the dots, Macquarie has an outperform rating on the ASX 200 gold stock with a 12-month price target of $1.30 a share.
As mentioned up top, that represents a potential upside of 54.8% from Tuesday's closing price.
