After tumbling 8.6% on Friday, the first trading day of 2026, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are in the green today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed on Friday trading for $24.43. In early afternoon trade today, shares are changing hands for $24.73 apiece, up 1.2%.
Despite today's rebound, that leaves the Northern Star share price down 7.5% here on the second trading day of the new year.
Before we look at whether that makes the Aussie gold mining giant a buy today, let's recap why investors punished the stock on Friday.
Why did Northern Star shares tumble on Friday?
Investors were reaching for their sell buttons on Friday after the gold miner reported lower than expected gold sales of around 348,000 ounces for the December quarter.
Management cited equipment failures and unplanned maintenance at production sites including Jundee, South Kalgoorlie, and Thunderbox for the reduced output.
And Northern Star shares got walloped after the miner downgraded its full year FY 2026 gold sales guidance to between 1.6 million and 1.7 million ounces, down from prior guidance of 1.7 million to 1.85 million ounces.
But did investors overreact on Friday?
Is the ASX 200 gold stock a good buy for 2026?
Despite the miner's December production issues, I'm still bullish on Northern Star shares.
On a company specific level, on Friday the Motley Fool reported:
The company is focusing on stabilising operations, completing its plant expansion at KCGM, and recovering output at Jundee and Thunderbox. The expanded plant at KCGM is on schedule.
And even with reduced sales in FY 2026, Northern Star is booking heady profits.
The miner forecasts full year all in sustaining costs (AISC) in the range of AU$2,300 to AU$2,700 per ounce.
The spot price of gold remains near its all-time highs, currently trading for US$4,391 (AU$6,565) per ounce.
And with gold catching tailwinds from ongoing central bank buying, potential additional interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, and rising geopolitical tensions following the US incursion into Venezuela, Northern Star could be enjoying even juicier margins in the year ahead.
Indeed, Global X forecast the gold price will reach US$5,000 per ounce in 2026. Global X said the gold price could even hit US$6,000 per ounce if global equity markets perform poorly or geopolitical tensions increase.
Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, also expects we'll see gold trade for US$5,000 per ounce in 2026.
According to Hansen:
As we head into 2026, gold is no longer just a hedge against inflation or falling rates – it is increasingly a cornerstone asset in a world defined by fragmentation, fiscal strain, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Despite Friday's tumble, Northern Star shares remain up 58% since this time last year.
