Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares were heavily sold off on Monday and Tuesday.
In fact, the exploration company's share price has fallen 53.13% over the last 5 days.
This has come on the back of its performance during the fourth quarter of FY 2025, and the release of its FY 2026 guidance for the Honeymoon Project.
Despite this alarming sell-off over the last week, broker Bell Potter has a "buy" recommendation on Boss Energy shares.
Lets see what the broker had to say.
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Disappointing guidance
In a report issued yesterday, the broker suggested the lack of clarity out of the company may have contributed to the stock price crash.
The broker expressed disappointment with Boss Energy's production guidance for FY26 and uncertainty for FY27.
For FY26, the company expects to produce 1.6 million pounds of uranium, which is lower than both Bell Potter's forecast of 1.99 million pounds and the market consensus of 1.7 million pounds.
Looking ahead to FY27, there is significant uncertainty.
According to the broker, management has flagged concerns about resource continuity and leachability at the Honeymoon project, which could prevent the mine from reaching its full production capacity. However, the company has not provided enough detail to assess how serious the impact might be.
Panic seems overextended
Despite this soft outlook, the broker believes the sell-off of Boss Energy shares was overdone.
At face value, the sell-off looks over extended, however our confidence in forward guidance is low. Our valuation assumes production at Honeymoon over the short 10Y mine life is limited to ~1.7Mlbs pa and costs remain elevated, until such a time that management can guide differently.
The broker did suggest that if uranium prices rise significantly there could be opportunity. However if prices stay low, the company's current valuation may not be justified.
Revised price target
Bell Potter included an updated price target for Boss Energy shares.
The broker has a "buy" recommendation and a 12 month price target of $2.90.
If the stock reaches the target price of $2.90, it would return 61.1% more than its current price of $1.80.
It's worth noting the current price target is significantly reduced from its previous target of $4.65.
It seems other brokers also see upside in the oversold stock.
Macquarie also lowered its guidance yesterday but still has a price target of $2.25 a share.
