Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares are having a week to forget.
In late morning trade today, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) uranium miner are down 5.8%, changing hands for $1.80 apiece.
This represents the fifth consecutive day of losses for Boss, with the stock now down 53.9% since last Tuesday's close.
While painful for faithful shareholders, the huge one-week losses will be welcomed by the sizeable group of short sellers who have been betting against the stock. Boss Energy shares kicked off the week as the third most shorted stock on the ASX, with a short interest of 14.1%.
Here's what's been fuelling the recent sell-off.
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Boss Energy shares take a big hit
Last Thursday, Boss Energy shares closed down 6.4% after the company announced the unexpected departure of long-standing CEO Duncan Craib. Craib will remain with the company in the role of non-executive director.
Boss Energy's chief operating officer, Matt Dusci, will take over as CEO on 1 October.
But Thursday's losses paled in comparison to the carnage on Monday, following the release of the ASX 200 uranium stock's quarterly update.
The quarterly results themselves were strong, with Boss reporting an 18% quarter-on-quarter increase in drummed uranium to 349,188 pounds.
But investors sent Boss Energy shares down 44.0% after the miner revealed it was targeting 1.6 million pounds of uranium production in FY 2026 at a higher cost than the market had expected.
Boss was aiming to produce 2.45 million pounds of uranium each year longer term. And with the miner citing concerns over the quality of its feedstock, investors were quick to head for the exit.
Is the ASX 200 uranium stock now a good buy?
Following on Monday's 40% tumble for Boss Energy shares, the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) noted that while FY 2025 has gone well, the FY 2026 and longer-term outlook were "disappointing".
On the cost guidance front, Macquarie said, "FY26 costs were well above expectations."
As for the potentially lower long-term production levels that sent investors running, the broker added:
2 business days after the MD/CEO succession was announced last week (as Boss transitions from developer to producer), an extraordinary walk-back of feasibility study (EFS) production assumptions the market has relied on since 2021 – key issues appear to be related to mineralisation continuity & leachability (likely in Honeymoon & East Kalkaroo domains, likely to drive resource downgrades).
If not 2.45Mlb/yr capacity, the market is wondering (i) if 1.6Mlb (FY26 guide) will be as good as it gets, prior to declines in the initial high-grade Honeymoon wellfields and/or (ii) if the mine life could be impacted (11 yrs on EFS).
Macquarie maintained its neutral rating on Boss Energy shares, lowering its 12-month price target by 49% to $2.25 a share "on lower Honeymoon production and higher costs".
Still, that's 25% above the current share price, suggesting yesterday's selling action may have been overdone.
Macquarie said that future value delivery will be driven by incoming CEO Matt Dusci, "with market expectations now lowered".
