The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was up 0.2% at 11:30am AEST, which is right when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released Australia's June quarterly inflation data.
In the minutes that followed, the benchmark Aussie index gained 0.4% as investors mulled over the prospect for more 2026 interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Here's what's happening.
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ASX 200 lifts as inflation retreats
The ASX 200 is pushing higher after the ABS reported that Australia's headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7% in the June quarter and 2.1% annually.
This is in line with consensus expectations.
Annual inflation of 2.1% is down from 2.4% in the March quarter, while the latest 0.7% quarterly increase is down from the 0.9% rise in the March quarter.
"This is the lowest annual inflation rate since the March 2021 quarter," Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said, in bullish news for ASX 200 investors.
As for the trimmed mean inflation, which takes out certain volatile items and can give more insights into how inflation is actually trending, Marquardt said:
Trimmed mean annual inflation was 2.7% to the June quarter, down from 2.9% to the March quarter. Trimmed mean annual inflation remains higher than CPI inflation of 2.1%.
Trimmed mean CPI is also in line with consensus economist expectations.
Helping fuel the quarterly rise in inflation were housing (up 1.2%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (up 1.0%), and health (up 1.5%).
Electricity costs were up 8.1% amid the winddown of government household energy rebates.
"While electricity was up this quarter, it's down 6.2% compared to 12 months ago as rebates remained in place for most capital cities," Marquardt noted.
But some things actually got cheaper over the quarter, including transport, which was down 0.7%, helping fuel today's ASX 200 gains.
"Prices for automotive fuel have fallen in three of the past four quarters and are 10.0% lower compared to 12 months ago," Marquardt said.
Automotive fuel prices were in fact the main contributor to the slowing of annual inflation, with prices down 10.0% year on year.
How does the inflation print impact the outlook for interest rate cuts?
Commenting on Australia's inflation levels and the prospect for near-term RBA interest rate cuts prior to the inflation results release, National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):
The RBA in July demonstrated they will remove policy restrictiveness more cautiously than we had expected.
We don't think Q2 CPI data will stand in the way of an August cut and continue to expect the RBA will move policy to broadly neutral settings to sustain low unemployment and support the pickup in growth.
NAB said that ASX 200 investors will likely see the next two RBA interest rate cuts in August and November.
