Like most every resource stock, the performance of Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) shares is heavily influenced by the metal it digs from the earth.
In Paladin's case, that's uranium.
Five years ago, uranium was trading for right around US$31 per pound. Uranium prices then peaked out at more than US$106 per pound in February 2024. On Friday, the radioactive metal was fetching $74 per pound, up from lows of US$64 per pound back in March.
As you'd expect, this has seen some significant price swings for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) uranium stock over this time.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
If you'd invested $10,000 in Paladin Energy shares five years ago, just how much would you have today?
Taking the plunge on Paladin Energy shares
On 24 July 2020, you could have picked up shares in the ASX 200 uranium miner for $1.37 each.
So, with a $10,000 investment five years ago, you could have bought 7,299 shares (exclusive of any potential brokerage fees).
On Friday, Paladin Energy shares closed the day trading for $7.23. While that's down 56% from the highs posted in May 2024 amid the strong uranium prices at the time, it's up 428% from the share price five years ago.
And according to my trusty calculator, that means the 7,299 shares you bought in July 2020 for $10,000 are now worth a (rounded) $52,772. Or a gain of $42,772.
What's been happening with the ASX 200 uranium miner lately?
Paladin Energy shares are up more than 81% since the stock closed at one-year lows of $3.98 on 22 April.
That's despite the uranium miner coming under selling pressure this week. Shares closed down 11.3% on Wednesday following the release of Paladin's June quarter update.
Among the headwinds, the company reported an average realised uranium price for the three months of US$55.60 per pound, down 20.5% quarter on quarter. Its average realised uranium price across FY 2025 came in at US$65.70 per pound.
Uranium sales for the quarter were also down 18.6% from the prior quarter at 710,051 pounds.
FY 2025 uranium sales totalled 2,705,693 pounds.
Looking ahead, Paladin forecasts FY 2026 uranium sales in the range of 3.8 million to 4.2 million pounds.
Following on the update, the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) concluded that ASX investors overreacted in selling the stock.
The broker retained its outperform rating on Paladin Energy shares with a 12-month price target of $8.25. That represents a potential upside of more than 14% from Friday's closing price of $7.23.
