The All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is packed with resource companies – from global mining giants like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) to hundreds of junior explorers hoping to strike it big.
Somewhere in between lies a group of lesser-known miners quietly delivering meaningful outcomes.
And one such small-cap mining business has just caught the attention of analysts at respected investment house Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).
Established miner with growth credentials
Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI) is a mining and exploration company with a strategic landholding in the geologically revered Cobar Basin of New South Wales.
The group operates three underground mines across two operations – Federation and Peak.
At Federation, it churns out zinc, lead, gold, copper, and silver.
And notably, the company is in the process of ramping up the mining rates at this project.
In a nutshell, Federation only commenced commercial production at the start of July.
The mined tonnes at Federation are now projected to rise from 100,000 tonnes per annum in FY25, to more than 300,000 tonnes each year in FY26.
And during FY27, the group expects the mining rate to swell to 600,000 tonnes annually.
At Peak, Aurelia extracts zinc, copper, and gold.
In addition, it is also advancing its Great Cobar copper project towards production.
This undeveloped but promising deposit is also located within the Peak complex and represents further growth potential for the business.
Construction of the mine at Great Cobar commenced just this month with first production expected in FY28.
In turn, Macquarie has now tipped significant upside for Aurelia's share price following the company's quarterly update on Monday, as well as its guidance for FY26 and beyond.
What is Macquarie saying?
In a research note released Tuesday, Macquarie reaffirmed its outperform rating for Aurelia shares following the miner's latest updates.
The broker set a 12-month price target of 27 cents, implying a bumper 38% upside potential from Tuesday's closing price of 19.5 cents.
Commenting on the results, Macquarie noted:
With the company's 3-year outlook and preliminary production already pre-released, today's quarterly report was largely procedural. AMI is entering a capital intensive couple of years as it invests in its Great Cobar development project as well as investing capital to ramp up Federation.
Macquarie pointed to Aurelia's strong financial position, which could act as a key enabler for its growth plans.
At the end of the fourth quarter of FY25, the company held about A$110 million in cash with no drawn debt.
It also retained an undrawn loan note facility of US$23.6m – or about A$36 million – which arms the group with total liquidity of around A$146 million.
Looking ahead, Macquarie highlighted progress on the Great Cobar mine construction as a potential catalyst in the first quarter of FY26, alongside the continued ramp-up of operations at Federation.
The broker also flagged a possible upgrade to the resource base at Federation as another potential value-driving spark for the company.
