Major miners up as China announces new mega project

Can a new mega-dam absorb iron ore oversupply?

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Iron ore prices hit their highest level since February as China announced a new mega-dam project.

The price of iron ore on the Singapore Exchange's August contract has climbed to US$1041 per tonne.

As such, the iron ore price is up about 10% since the start of July.

And ASX-listed iron ore miners have also seen their share prices lift over the past month.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), Australia's biggest iron ore miner, has seen its share price gain about 11% since July 1.

Similarly, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) has seen its share price gain 13% since the start of the month, and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are up 15%.

The recent lift in iron ore prices will come as welcome reprieve for the major miners' shareholders.

Iron ore has lost about 40% of its value since early 2022, when it was trading for around US$160 per tonne.

And a series of issues centring around oversupply concerns has seen ASX iron ore shares suffer significant declines since early 2024.

But the future of ASX's iron ore miners is looking brighter.

What happened?

China, the world's biggest iron ore importer, announced it has started work on the world's largest hydropower dam project.

The mega-dam being built in Tibet is expected to require up to four times more steel than the massive Three Gorges Dam.

China's Three Gorges Dam, with a 22,000-megawatt capacity, is currently the world's largest hydroelectric power station.

As such, iron ore futures markets are reacting to the announcement that signals a surge in demand to offset oversupply.

Increased blast furnace activity in China's steel mills comes as another positive sign for iron ore miners, indicating oversupply is beginning to ease.

Foolish takeaway

The commencement of the mega-dam project and reports of steel production ramping up in China have flipped the narrative on the iron ore story.

Earlier this year, reports of China cutting steel production signalled challenging times ahead for the ASX's iron ore miners.

As news of decreasing demand emerged, projected supply increases further impacted ore prices with new mines in Africa and South America set to come online in the coming years.

Guinea's Simandou project, one of the world's largest untapped high-grade iron ore deposits, is expected to begin shipments this year.

While recent headlines and a lift in iron ore futures have helped push major miners' share prices higher, challenges remain.

Lingering uncertainty amid global trade tensions will continue to impact the price of iron ore significantly.

And Australia's Department of Industry, Science and Resources' latest forecast indicates further reductions in the country's iron ore exports amid low prices.

Motley Fool contributor Steve Holland has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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