The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained 8.9% in the June quarter, with two ASX 200 bank stocks racing ahead of those gains and two falling short.
The two outperformers were Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), with CBA shares gaining a whopping 22.4% over the three months. National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) also outperformed, with NAB shares surging 15.7%.
On the other side of the scale, Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares underperformed the benchmark, posting a 7.3% gain over the June quarter. And ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) trailed the pack, with shares gaining only 0.2% over the three months.
With that performance in mind, here's who's been buying the Aussie banks, and who's been selling.
Who's buying the ASX 200 bank stocks?
In its Australian Banks report, released by Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) on Tuesday, the broker looked into the biggest buyers and sellers of ASX 200 banks stocks.
And Macquarie reported that, over the last six months, the primary source of net buying has shifted from domestic institutions (largely superannuation funds) to offshore investors.
According to the broker:
We think this reflects a few factors including: (1) super funds already implementing bank 'overlays' to manage underweights, (2) super allocations to Australian equities peaking in Sep-24, (3) offshore investors looking for tariff safe-havens and betting on a weaker USD.
Macquarie noted that bank share registry data suggests offshore and domestic investors remain buyers of ASX 200 bank stocks in the June quarter.
International institutions bought around $2.7 billion of bank shares, the highest level since March 2020. Meanwhile, domestic institutions bought some $700 million of Aussie bank shares.
Breaking that down, international institutions largely bought CBA shares (around $2.2 billion), while domestic institutions bought NAB shares (around $600 million) and Westpac shares (around $300 million).
Macquarie reported that May saw record traded volume and value in US-listed American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) of ANZ shares, CBA shares, and NAB shares, with a combined $1.5 billion traded. This saw ADR volumes reach a record 7% to 9% share of ASX volumes.
Who's selling the big Aussie banks?
As for who's been lightening their holdings of ASX 200 banks stocks, Macquarie reported that retail investors continued to be net sellers of the banks in the June quarter.
The broker noted selling activity in CBA shares, NAB shares, and Westpac shares, while retail investors were buying ANZ shares.
Macquarie reported:
Domestic investors remain overweight NAB and increased their positions for the first time since Jun-24, they remain neutral WBC.
International investors remain underweight CBA, but their underweight position is now a record low. Short interest decreased across all banks, except Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO), with CBA's short interest now broadly in-line with major bank peers.
What now for the ASX 200 bank stocks?
Looking ahead, Macquarie noted several key risks to these positioning trends which have supported ASX 200 bank stocks.
These included:
- Super funds turning negative on the bank sector
- A return of unlisted activity and increased preference for offshore investments seeing allocation to Australian equities fall
- US regulatory easing unlocking billions in capital returns, seeing global financial investors fund US bank buying with Australian banks, where capital returns have already played out
Connecting the dots, Macquarie said that "combined with downside risk" to earnings, this should drive banks to underperform.
